Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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224 R. Warren Table 3. Some projected quantitative estimates of climate change impacts at 4◦C about preindustrial levels under the A1B scenario in the 2080s taken from this volume and elsewhere. impact sector projections at 4 ◦ C above preindustrial projections at 2 ◦ C above preindustrial sources [27,46,92] 410 million people experience increase in water stress globally; water stress reduced compared with 4◦Cin most river basins; in a small number where this is not so, benefits offset by changes in seasonality hydrology 15% world population exposed to water stress; 840 million people experience increase in water stress globally; increase from present-day 1%, to future 30%, of global land area experiencing drought at any Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 [27,47] 32% of land on which crops currently grown becomes unsuitable for cultivation; carefully planned adaptation could maintain food security in sub-Saharan Africa [25,27,87, 90] low risk of accelerated ice melt; for median sea-level rise of approximately 0.35 m in 2100, i.e. excluding accelerated ice melt (www.avoid.uk.net); about a 15-fold increase in population experiencing coastal flooding [32,43,46, 80,93] all coral reefs bleached; risks of extinction to approximately 20% of species studied; some increases in fire frequency; damage to Arctic ecosystem functioning; ecosystem services reduced in some areas; Amazon forest largely intact one time agriculture and 50% of land on which crops currently grown becomes food unsuitable for cultivation; 15% of the globe’s dry land currently suitable for cultivation becomes unsuitable; 20% of globe’s colder lands become suitable for cultivation; limited adaptation options in sub-Saharan Africa; threats to food security coasts sea-level rise of 0.5–2.0 m if occurs in 2100 (range includes accelerated ice melt); for median sea-level rise of approximately 0.47 m in 2100, i.e. excluding accelerated ice melt (www.avoid.uk.net), more than 30-fold increase in population experiencing coastal flooding ecosystems functional extinction of coral reef ecosystems (converted to algal mats); risks of extinction to approximately 40% species studied globally, including losses of iconic species and associated ecotourism; disruption to functioning of major global ecosystems, Arctic and salvanization of Amazon rainforest; conversion of terrestrial carbon sink to a source exacerbating climate change; large increase in boreal and Mediterranean fire frequency; 50% of protected areas cannot fulfil objective; major widespread loss of ecosystem services worldwide
[89,94,95] further acidification by up to 0.07 pH units; some damage to marine ecosystems oceans further mean acidification by 0.26 pH units (in addition to the present-day change of 0.1 units); risk of disruption to marine ecosystems; risk of localized ocean anoxia extreme 50% flood-prone people exposed to increased hazard; 25% flood-prone people exposed to increased hazard; [27,96] weather flood-affected population rises to 544 million annually flood-affected population rises to 211 million (as defined by those experiencing a present-day 1 in annually 100 year flood) human health health hazards increasingly difficult to control hazards reduced [51] Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C world 225 [32,52,77,89, 93,98,99] much reduced risk of loss of terrestrial carbon sink; Amazon likely to remain largely intact loss of terrestrial carbon sink and hence large-scale loss of forests via dessication and fire (potentially including up to 50% Amazon (excluding deforestation) and uncertain fraction of boreal forest) impacts of feedback processes in the Earth system
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
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50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
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52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
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54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
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56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
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58 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. We can
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60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
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62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
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64 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. 4. Conc
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66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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Review. Global warming reaching 4
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
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88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
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90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90°
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92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
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94 M. G. Sanderson et al. South Ame
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96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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Agriculture and food systems in sub
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
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122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
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128 P. K. Thornton et al. — The r
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130 P. K. Thornton et al. keepers i
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132 P. K. Thornton et al. 3 Frayne,
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134 P. K. Thornton et al. 41 Erikse
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136 P. K. Thornton et al. 83 Challi
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
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164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
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166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
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168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
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170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
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172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
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174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
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