Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

0 retraction risk 17
120
80
40
(a)
0 expansion opportunity 17
0
−40
% change
0 temperature boundary 17
−80
−120
Humid tropical forests on a warmer planet 149
120
80
40
120
80
40
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011)
Downloaded from
rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
0
−40
% change
0
−40
% change
−80
−120
−80
−120
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
120
80
40
(b)
0
−40
% change
120
80
40
120
80
40
−80
−120
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
0
−40
% change
0
−40
% change
−80
−120
−80
−120
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
Figure 3. Change in the potential climatological niche of HTFs, as inferred from AOGCM data, assuming no change in ecosystem water demand.
(a) HTF niche at 2◦C and (b) 4◦C global warming. Dark grey areas mark the niche derived from the current climatological conditions, and are
predicted to remain by all AOGCMs. Shades of red and green mark the potential HTF niche contraction and expansion, respectively. Areas too cold
for HTFs are marked in blue. In mountainous areas adjacent to HTFs, they define the boundary between lowland and montane tropical forests. Inset
bar plots show the percentage of models that agree on a change up to the plotted level.