Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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Rethinking adaptation for a +4 ◦ C world 201 continue what we are currently doing into the future, and the possibility that transformation might be needed is largely unaddressed. Strategies usually target building capacity, taking incremental steps and ‘mainstreaming’. The emerging prospect that the world will face at least 4 ◦ C global warming, as soon as the 2070s under some projections [1], demands that this approach be reassessed. If a 4 ◦ C world eventuates this century, many current actions are failing to meet the challenge. Adger & Barnett’s [7] concern about maladaptation will be realized if we invest in activities that prove, at best, costly and pointless if a 4 ◦ C future materializes, and at worst may have prevented more transformative measures. 3. Barriers to adaptation for a 4 ◦ C world The prospect of 4 ◦ C global warming within the lifetimes of people born today is confronting, not least because there are many barriers to successful adaptation [7]. Although urgently needed, a comprehensive assessment of these is beyond this paper. However, we can consider those barriers that interact particularly significantly with the issues raised in §2, in order to unlock decision-making in the face of the 4 ◦ C challenge. (a) Psychological and social barriers Humanity’s ability to adapt physically to a 4 ◦ C world will depend in part on how well people adapt psychologically. Governments, other organizations and individuals will not undertake adaptation activities until they accept the need to do so. Most adaptation literature assumes that accepting the need to act follows from demonstrating the damage that will flow from failing to act. This makes the unwarranted assumption that humans respond to threats with adaptive coping strategies rather than with psychologically maladaptive ones or forms of denial [26]. There is a wide range of cognitive strategies that individuals (and groups) may employ to avoid fully or partially accepting the possibility of unpleasant futures and the need to act now. They are briefly described in table 1. Many of these are promoted by the sense that future climate changes are uncertain, distant or overwhelming, all characteristics of the current narrative around adaptation. Individuals and perhaps cultures have to pass through the stages of denial, notional acceptance but failure to accept any personal responsibility for acting, to finally acting on such issues, although this passage is by no means necessarily a smooth one [26,27]. The way individuals cope with a 4 ◦ C world will be influenced by how societies and their institutions respond to the new environment. If only a minority are pursing adaptive coping strategies while others are engaged in denial or maladaptive strategies, the former may feel isolated and disempowered, and governments and other institutions will be under less pressure to undertake adaptation measures, particularly those with long lifetimes. Thus, facilitating the majority to take at least small steps on an adaptation pathway may overcome this paralysis. Crompton & Kasser [28] propose two types of response to encourage governments, non-government institutions and professional organizations to Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
202 M. Stafford Smith et al. Table 1. An analysis of psychological strategies for responding to the prospects of severe climate change (after [26]). types strategies brief description denial strategies maladaptive coping strategies adaptive coping strategies active denial resolves cognitive dissonance by actively rejecting scientific claims casual denial avoiding exposure to and dismissing uncomfortable facts with the assistance of narratives about scientific uncertainty or errors reinterpreting the threat by making its scale seem smaller or its timeframe distant, people ‘de-problematize’ the threat diversionary strategies appropriate thoughts and actions are displaced by positive but trivial actions (such as installing low-energy light bulbs) or by pleasure-seeking blame-shifting responsibility is disavowed by blaming others for the problem. For example, China has become a popular scapegoat for global warming indifference strategies deliberate apathy can reduce short-term pressures but unrealistic optimism/wishful thinking expressing and controlling emotions may exact a heavy psychological toll ‘benign fictions’ lead us to predict what we would prefer to see. Such unrealistic optimism becomes maladaptive when healthy illusions refuse to respond to external evidence and become delusions feelings of anger, despair and hopelessness are natural in the circumstances. Emotion-focused coping requires that we express these feelings but do not become ‘stuck’ in them problem-solving finding out more about a threat may alleviate anxiety. If knowledge leads to action, working with others helps establish a sense of control new value orientation considered reflection on death has been shown to promote life goals that are less materialistic and more pro-social promote adaptive coping strategies: simply publicizing and encouraging adaptive strategies while gently pointing out maladaptive ones; and, promoting value shifts in society towards those that are more sympathetic to cooperation and recognition of intrinsic, rather than materialistic, values. Naturally, these are only two of many necessary contributions. (b) Cognitive responses to uncertainty A specific aspect of psychological barriers arises from our cognitive capabilities. Research demonstrates that individuals and organizations struggle to deal effectively with uncertainty. This is a well-recognized barrier to better decisionmaking in relation to climate change, even though there are many riskmanagement tools and techniques (see review in [29]) available to help policymaking under such conditions. As the analysis of climate adaptation becomes Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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