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Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 182–195 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0287 Climate-induced population displacements ina4 ◦ C+ world BY FRANÇOIS GEMENNE* Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI ), Sciences Po Paris, 27 Rue Saint-Guillaume, 75007 Paris, France, and Centre for Ethnic and Migration Studies (CEDEM ), University of Liège, 7 Boulevard du Rectorat, 4000 Liège, Belgium Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2 ◦ C temperature rise. In the event of a 4 ◦ C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also—and above all—the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4 ◦ C+ world would require. Keywords: migration; displacement; climate change; mobility; adaptation 1. Introduction Massive population displacements are regularly forecast as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. In recent years, the concept of climate-induced migration has gained considerable currency, and ‘climate refugees’ are now a common feature in discourses on the human impact of climate change [1,2]. Works on this topic are usually rooted in an essentialist perspective, which assumes that migration is a logical by-product of climate change. Most forecasts and estimations adopt a deterministic approach based on the number of people living in regions that will be affected by sea-level rise, and conclude that about 150–200 million people could be displaced by 2050 as a result of climate change [3–5]. Such forecasts, however, have triggered wide controversy among the scholarly community, and have often been criticized for being too environmentally deterministic and not sufficiently rooted in empirical evidence [6,7]. Indeed, such forecasts took little account of vulnerability patterns and demographic trends, and did not factor in the implementation of possible adaptation strategies. *francois.gemenne@iddri.org One contribution of 13 to a Theme Issue ‘Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications’. 182 This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
Climate-induced population displacements 183 This paper contends that the nature and extent of migration flows associated with the impacts of climate change depend not only on these impacts, but also on a wide range of other factors, such as cultural, economic or political conditions. It argues that the policy responses that will be implemented to deal with these flows will be particularly important in that regard. Migration policies, so far, have poorly accounted for environmental drivers of migration. The policy debate on adaptation, however, is increasingly considering that migration could be a way for populations to cope with environmental degradation, rather than a failure to adapt [8–10]. The planning of future adaptation policies that would address migration, however, is contingent upon predictions of future population movements. Current forecasts and projections show that the regions that would be most affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa [5,11]. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2 ◦ C temperature rise. In the event of a 4 ◦ C+ average temperature rise, this paper argues that the very nature of these migrations, rather than just their magnitude, would change and would therefore call for different policy responses. It puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of associated population movements, but also—and more importantly—the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. Section 2 reviews the different impacts of climate change that could trigger population displacements. Such impacts typically include sea-level rise, droughts and land degradation, as well as extreme weather events. Predictions and forecasts of population displacements related to these impacts, however, are marred by a double uncertainty, which concerns both the local impacts of climate change and the way people will respond to these changes. Despite these uncertainties, §3 attempts to examine how a temperature rise of 4 ◦ C+ could affect population displacements. Using past empirical evidence, the section suggests that people might migrate very differently in a 4 ◦ C+ world than in a 2 ◦ C world. Three expected changes in particular are highlighted, in a way that rebuts the deterministic perspective that dominates discourse on ‘environmental migration’. Finally, §§4 and 5 outline the policy implications of this rebuttal and elaborate on some proposals for policy developments that could address the changing nature of climate-induced displacements in a 4 ◦ C+ world. 2. The impacts of climate change on migration Climate change will affect societies through an extensive range of impacts. The prediction of such impacts, however, remains marred by uncertainties, especially at the regional and local levels [12,13]. Uncertainties are even greater when one needs to factor in the wide range of possible human reactions to these impacts. Empirical studies remain scarce [6], and experimentation is impossible, as is often the case in social sciences. Thus an assessment of the impacts of climate change on migration is, by its nature, a daunting task. It nevertheless appears possible to identify three types of impacts that seem most likely to have an effect on migration patterns, although these effects are not certain [11,14]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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