Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

More documents

Recommendations

Info

26 K. Anderson and A. Bows The two remaining budgets, 1578 GtCO2 (430 GtC) and 1321 GtCO2 (360 GtC), are taken directly from Macintosh [3]. The first is informed by the Garnaut Climate Change Review’s 450 ppm CO2e stabilization scenario [27] 12 and according to Macintosh [3] provides an approximate 50 per cent chance of not exceeding 2 ◦ C. The latter, according to Macintosh reflects the ‘risk that climate-carbon cycle feedbacks respond earlier and more strongly than previously believed’ and corresponds with a higher probability of not exceeding 2 ◦ C. 13 (ii) The basket of six regime (B6) and twenty-first century budgets The B6 regime, used previously by Anderson & Bows [2], assumes the correlation between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of the basket of six Kyoto gases as adequate for informing policy-makers of the scale of mitigation necessary. In relation to aerosols it assumes they are both short-lived and sufficiently highly correlated with fossil fuel combustion and deforestation as to have little net impact on temperatures associated with twenty-first century lowemission scenario pathways [10]. 14 Moreover, it assumes the ‘CO2 equivalence’ of Kyoto gases reasonably captures the warming implications of non-CO2 emissions from producing food for an increasing and more affluent population. Evidently, the CO2e regime is not as scientifically robust as the CO2-only regime, but it more appropriately captures the contextual implications of alternative emission scenario pathways. The two CO2e budgets within this paper are those used within Anderson & Bows [2] and represent the low (1376 GtCO2e) and high (2202 GtCO2e) ends of the IPCC AR4 cumulative emission range for stabilization at 450 ppmv CO2e [29]. Currently Meinshausen’s et al.’s PRIMAP tool [28] does not permit a direct calculation of the probability of exceeding 2◦C for emission pathways that maintain a substantial and long-term emission burden. However, a coarse-level but nevertheless adequate estimate is possible if the long lived gases within the ‘emissions floor’ 15 are added to the 2000–2050 cumulative values. (b) Empirical data The continued and high level of current emissions is consuming the twentyfirst century emission budget at a rapid rate. Consequently, it is necessary to use up-to-date and complete emissions data to construct future emission pathways. Within this paper data are aggregated for the latest year available from a number of different sources. 12 For more details see Macintosh [3]. 13 Probabilities based on Meinshausen et al.’s [7] model assumptions can be calculated using the PRIMAP tool [28] if the 2000–2049 emissions are known. 14 ‘Twenty-first century low-emission’ scenarios are premised on low fossil fuel combustion and low deforestation rates. The probabilities related to 2 ◦ C in the B6 regime do however take into account the radiative forcing of the different emissions including aerosols based on assumptions embedded in Meinshausen’s et al.’s PRIMAP tool for estimating probabilities of exceeding 2 ◦ C[28]. 15 Refers to the lowest level of annual emissions considered viable in the scenario. These emissions are typically related to agriculture and food production. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
(i) Energy and industrial process emissions Beyond dangerous climate change 27 For energy and process related CO2 emissions from 2000 until 2008, data are taken for each Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nation from the Global Carbon Project using the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) [30] and aggregated to produce an Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 total. The nationally constructed data from this source exclude CO2 emissions from international aviation and shipping. To include these additional emissions, data are not taken from CDIAC as their bunker fuel CO2 emission data are not disaggregated between nations and global marine bunker emissions are based on sales records that currently underestimate significantly the global greenhouse gas emission burden [31]. Instead, international aviation CO2 for Annex 1 nations is taken from the memo submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) [32]. Non-Annex 1 international aviation CO2 data are taken from the International Energy Agency [33] as non-Annex 1 nations do not submit this information to the UNFCCC. For international marine bunkers, the data have previously been subject to high levels of uncertainty [34–36]. However, a recent study by the International Maritime Organisation [37] has produced a time series for greenhouse gas emissions associated with international shipping activity. These data provide a figure for the global aggregated CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2007. However, the data are not disaggregated into national statistics. To estimate the proportion of international shipping CO2 emissions split between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, an assumption is taken that shipping activity is directly proportional to each nation’s proportion of global GDP. This crude method of apportionment was used previously (e.g. [36]), and given difficulties in apportioning international shipping emissions to nations [38,39], is also used here as an adequate, though inevitably coarse-level, division of emissions between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations. 16 (ii) Deforestation and land-use change For deforestation and land-use change (hereafter referred to as ‘deforestation’) data between 2000 and 2008 carbon emissions are again taken from the Global Carbon Project Carbon Budget Update 2009 [41]. Their figures are estimated based on deforestation statistics published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization [42] and a bookkeeping method up until 2005. The 2006–2008 emissions are derived from estimates of fire emissions using satellite data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center Global Fire Emissions Database in combination with a biogeochemical model [43]. (iii) Non-CO2 greenhouse gas data The non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission data for 2000–2005 are based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates [44]. For 2006 and 2007, data are taken from an interpolation between the 2005 and 2010 EPA projections. 16 A hybrid approach for apportioning aviation emissions between regions may provide insights into potential apportionment regimes for shipping [40]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Page 1 and 2: ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
Page 3 and 4: Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
Page 5 and 6: Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
Page 7 and 8: Four degrees and beyond: the potent
Page 9 and 10: Preface 5 commitments might give us
Page 11 and 12: Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 13 and 14: 8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
Page 15 and 16: 10 M. New et al. supports the messa
Page 17 and 18: 12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
Page 19 and 20: 14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
Page 21 and 22: 16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
Page 23 and 24: 18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
Page 25 and 26: Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
Page 27 and 28: Beyond dangerous climate change 21
Page 31: Beyond dangerous climate change 25
Page 39 and 40: (a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
Page 41 and 42: Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
Page 51 and 52: Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
Page 53 and 54: 46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
Page 55 and 56: 48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
Page 57 and 58: 50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
Page 59 and 60: 52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
Page 61 and 62: 54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
Page 63 and 64: 56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
Page 65 and 66: 58 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. We can
Page 67 and 68: 60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
Page 69 and 70: 62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
Page 71 and 72: 64 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. 4. Conc
Page 73 and 74: 66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
Page 75 and 76: Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 77 and 78: emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
Page 79 and 80: Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 81 and 82: Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 83 and 84:
global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
Page 85 and 86:
Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 87 and 88:
temperature (relative to 1861-1890
Page 89 and 90:
°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
Page 91 and 92:
Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 93 and 94:
Regional temperature and precipitat
Page 95 and 96:
86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
Page 97 and 98:
88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
Page 99 and 100:
90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90°
Page 101 and 102:
92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
Page 103 and 104:
94 M. G. Sanderson et al. South Ame
Page 105 and 106:
96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
Page 107 and 108:
98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
Page 109 and 110:
Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 111 and 112:
Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
Page 113 and 114:
(ii) Water stress index Water avail
Page 115 and 116:
(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
(a) number of models, black line nu
Page 121 and 122:
change in run-off (%) change in run
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Agriculture and food systems in sub
Page 129 and 130:
118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
Page 131 and 132:
120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
Page 133 and 134:
122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
Page 135 and 136:
124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
Page 137 and 138:
126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
Page 139 and 140:
128 P. K. Thornton et al. — The r
Page 141 and 142:
130 P. K. Thornton et al. keepers i
Page 143 and 144:
132 P. K. Thornton et al. 3 Frayne,
Page 145 and 146:
134 P. K. Thornton et al. 41 Erikse
Page 147 and 148:
136 P. K. Thornton et al. 83 Challi
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Humid tropical forests on a warmer
Page 153 and 154:
(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Sea-level rise and its possible imp
Page 175 and 176:
162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
Page 177 and 178:
164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
Page 179 and 180:
166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
Page 181 and 182:
168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
Page 183 and 184:
170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
Page 185 and 186:
172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
Page 187 and 188:
174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
Page 189 and 190:
176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
Page 191 and 192:
178 R. J. Nicholls et al. to climat
Page 193 and 194:
180 R. J. Nicholls et al. 43 Pardae
Page 195 and 196:
Climate-induced population displace
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
198 M. Stafford Smith et al. the di
Page 215 and 216:
200 M. Stafford Smith et al. greate
Page 217 and 218:
202 M. Stafford Smith et al. Table
Page 219 and 220:
204 M. Stafford Smith et al. (c) Go
Page 221 and 222:
206 M. Stafford Smith et al. mean g
Page 223 and 224:
208 M. Stafford Smith et al. These
Page 225 and 226:
210 M. Stafford Smith et al. consid
Page 227 and 228:
212 M. Stafford Smith et al. — De
Page 229 and 230:
214 M. Stafford Smith et al. 12 Lem
Page 231 and 232:
216 M. Stafford Smith et al. 51 Ste
Page 233 and 234:
REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
Page 235 and 236:
Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
spread in mosquitoborne disease may
Page 241 and 242:
[89,94,95] further acidification by
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
Page 257 and 258:
Page 259:
Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
show all

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?