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108 F. Fung et al. Consensus for WSI across each ensemble (figure 2d) is stronger than for MAR. This suggests that for the majority of river basins, the direction of change in WSI is very much dependent on the population in the basin, at least for the 2060s population scenario, i.e. depending on the basin, the population numbers are more important in determining the change in WSI than the spread of values across the climate ensembles. In fact, for 64 per cent of the river basins driven by the CPDN ensemble, there is greater than 99 per cent consensus in the direction of change in WSI for both temperature regimes. This also follows for the CMIP3 ensemble where 74 per cent of the ensemble shows consensus in the direction of change in WSI for the +2 ◦ C world. However, in a small number of river basins, there is little consensus at either +2 ◦ Cor+4 ◦ C. For this subset of river basins (where consensus is less than 50%), we have compared DWSI for both the 2030s and 2060s population scenarios (not shown here). We find that there is no consistent signal in the change in consensus in WSI, for the two population scenarios, indicating that it is the uncertainty in the climate that dominates DWSI in these particular basins. (iii) River basins We next examine in more detail water resource response to climate model projections at +2◦C and +4◦C by focusing on six major river basins: the Amazon, Danube, Ganges, Mississippi, Murray Darling and Nile. In figure 3, we have plotted the frequency distributions for DMAR and DWSI for a 2◦Canda4◦C warming for the CPDN ensemble for each basin. The response in the CMIP3 ensemble at +2◦C has also been included, but because of the smaller size of this ensemble, we represent each ensemble member individually. Once again, the DMAR frequency distributions for each of the river basins confirm the finding that DMAR in a +2◦C world is amplified in a +4◦C world. In particular, in a number of the basins, the entire frequency distribution for CPDN at +4◦C becomes distinct from present-day MAR. However, the magnitude of these changes and differences between the CPDN and CMIP3 ensembles are dependent on the river basin analysed. For the Ganges, Amazon and Mississippi basins, the signal for DMAR for the CPDN ensemble in both the +2◦C and +4◦C worlds does not cover the range of DMAR values for the CMIP3 ensemble in a +2◦C world. The Ganges and Amazon basins have already been identified here, and in the IPCC AR4, as areas where there is little consensus across the CMIP3 ensemble and great uncertainty exists in future projections of precipitation change. Thus, despite the stronger consensus shown by the CPDN ensemble for these regions, the DMAR values for the CMIP3 ensemble demonstrate the need to analyse an MME to capture the range of possible projections of DMAR. An additional subset of climate models has also been plotted in figure 3, comprising those models that show a warming of 4◦C, but at the point they warm to 2◦C. While the range of this subset lies within that of the range for the full +2◦C ensemble, the shapes of both frequency distributions are very similar. This suggests that the +4◦C ensemble, although smaller in size, is representative of the responses that might be expected were the CPDN simulations long enough to allow all members to warm by 4◦C. A spatial correlation analysis of the changes in run-off between all 1538 models showing a 2◦C warming and all 339 models showing a 4◦C warming run-off shows that over 50 per cent of the models have Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
(a) number of models, black line number of models, black line 800 600 400 200 0 800 600 400 200 (b) 1000 number of models, black lines number of models, black lines Water availability in +2 ◦ C and +4 ◦ C worlds 109 Nile Ganges Murray Darling Danube Mississippi Amazon 0 −100 −50 0 50 100 −100 −50 0 50 100 −100 −50 0 50 100 0 change in mean annual run-off (%) change in mean annual run-off (%) change in mean annual run-off (%) 800 600 400 200 1000 800 600 400 200 –100 –50 0 Nile Ganges Murray Darling Danube Mississippi Amazon –100 –50 0 –100 –50 0 change in WSI (%) change in WSI (%) change in WSI (%) Figure 3. Changes in (a) MAR and (b) WSI for a +2 ◦ C and +4 ◦ C world for large river basins: Nile, Ganges, Murray Darling, Danube, Mississippi and Amazon, where frequency distributions are for CPDN models and pluses or crosses represent each CMIP model for a +2 ◦ Cor+4 ◦ C world, respectively. Solid lines represent population scenario UNPOP2030 and dashed lines UNPOP2060. Black lines are for models that show a 2 ◦ C warming, red lines for a 4 ◦ C warming and blue lines for models in a +2 ◦ C world that show a +4 ◦ C warming at some point in the twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 200 150 100 50 0 200 150 100 50 300 200 100 0 300 200 100 0 number of models, red and blue number of models, red and blue number of models, red and blue number of models, red and blue
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
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50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
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52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
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54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
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56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
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58 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. We can
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
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164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
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166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
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168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
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170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
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172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
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174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
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176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
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178 R. J. Nicholls et al. to climat
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180 R. J. Nicholls et al. 43 Pardae
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Climate-induced population displace
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198 M. Stafford Smith et al. the di
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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