25.01.2013 Views

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

238 R. Warren<br />

35 Olson, S. H., Gangnon, R., Silveira, G. A. & Patz, J. A. 2010 De<strong>for</strong>estation <strong>and</strong><br />

malaria in Mancio Lima County, Brazil. Emerging Infect. Dis. 16, 1108–1115. (doi:10.3201/<br />

eid1607.091785)<br />

36 Molyneux, D. H., Ostfield, R. S., Bernstein, A. & Chivian, E. 2008 Ecosystem disturbance,<br />

biodiversity loss, <strong>and</strong> human infectious disease. In Sustaining life: how human health depends on<br />

biodiversity (eds E. Chivian & A. Bernstein), pp. 287–324. New York, NY: Ox<strong>for</strong>d University<br />

Press.<br />

37 Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R. & Pauly, D. 2009<br />

Projecting <strong>global</strong> marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fisheries<br />

10, 235–251. (doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x)<br />

38 Hillel, D. & Rosenzweig, C. 2008 Biodiversity <strong>and</strong> food production. In Sustaining life: how<br />

human health depends on biodiversity (eds E. Chivian & A. Bernstein), pp. 325–381. New<br />

York, NY: Ox<strong>for</strong>d University Press.<br />

39 Knogge, T., Schirmer, M. & Schuchardt, B. 2004 L<strong>and</strong>scape-scale socio-economics of sea-level<br />

rise. Ibis 146, 11–17.<br />

40 Danielsen, F. et al. 2005 The Asian Tsunami: a protective role <strong>for</strong> coastal vegetation. Science<br />

310, 643. (doi:10.1126/science.1118387)<br />

41 Margulis, S., Narain, U., P<strong>and</strong>ey, K., Cretegny, L., Bucher, A., Schneider, R., Hughes,<br />

G., Essam, T. & Mearns, R. 2010 The costs of developing countries adapting to<br />

climate change. New methods <strong>and</strong> estimates. The Global Report of <strong>the</strong> Economics of<br />

Adaptation to Climate Change Study, Consultation Draft. World Bank, Washington,<br />

DC. See http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/economics-adaptation-climatechange-study-homepage.<br />

42 S<strong>and</strong>erson, M. G., Hemming, D. L. & Betts, R. A. 2011 Regional temperature <strong>and</strong><br />

precipitation changes under high-end (≥ 4 ◦ C) warming. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 85–98.<br />

(doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0283)<br />

43 CBD (Convention on Biological Diversity). 2009 Connecting biodiversity <strong>and</strong> climate change<br />

mitigation <strong>and</strong> adaptation. Report of <strong>the</strong> Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on<br />

Biodiversity <strong>and</strong> Climate change. CBD Technical Series no. 41. Secretariat of <strong>the</strong> Convention<br />

on Biological Diversity, Montreal, Canada.<br />

44 Warner, K., Hamza, M., Oliver-Smith, A., Renaud, F. & Julca, A. 2010 Climate change,<br />

environmental degradation <strong>and</strong> migration. Nat. Hazards (doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9419-7).<br />

45 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005 Ecosystems <strong>and</strong> human well-being: syn<strong>the</strong>sis.<br />

Washington, DC: Isl<strong>and</strong> Press.<br />

46 IPCC 2007 Climate change 2007 impacts, adaptation <strong>and</strong> vulnerability. In Contribution of<br />

Working Group II to <strong>the</strong> <strong>Four</strong>th Assessment Report of <strong>the</strong> IPCC (eds M. Parry, O. Cansiani,<br />

J. Palutikof, P. Van der Linden & C. Hanson). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.<br />

47 Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Ericksen, P. J. & Challinor, A. J. 2011 Agriculture <strong>and</strong><br />

food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 ◦ C+ world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 117–136.<br />

(doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0246)<br />

48 Mendelsohn, R., Kurukulasuriya, P. & Dinar, A. 2007 Climate <strong>and</strong> rural income. Clim. Change<br />

81, 101–118. (doi:10.1007/s10584-005-9010-5)<br />

49 Feng, S., Krueger, A. B. & Oppenheimer, M. 2010 Linkages among climate change, crop<br />

yields <strong>and</strong> Mexico-US cross-border migration. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 14 257–14 262.<br />

(doi:10.1073/pnas.1002632107)<br />

50 Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A. & Lobell, D. B. 2009 Warming<br />

increases <strong>the</strong> risk of civil war in Africa. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20 670–20 674.<br />

(doi:10.1073/pnas.0907998106)<br />

51 Hales, S. 2009 Estimating human population health impacts in a 4+ ◦ C world. See<br />

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4<strong>degrees</strong>/programme.php.<br />

52 Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Hunting<strong>for</strong>d, C. & Jones, C. D. 2004<br />

Amazonian <strong>for</strong>est dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> 21st century. Theor.<br />

Appl. Climatol. 78, 137–156. (doi:10.1007/S00704-004-0049-4)<br />

53 Renaud, F. G., Dun, O., Warner, K. & Bogardi, J. In press. A decision framework <strong>for</strong><br />

environmentally induced migration. Int. Migr. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 78, 137–156.<br />

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011)<br />

Downloaded from<br />

rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!