Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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African agriculture in a 4 ◦ C+ world 131 and the shifts in disease prevalence and severity that may occur as a result. Genetic diversity is already being seriously affected by global change. Genetic erosion of crops has been mostly associated with the introduction of modern cultivars, and its continuing threat may be highest for crops for which there are currently no breeding programmes [90]. Breeding efforts for such crops could thus be critically important. For livestock, about 16 per cent of the nearly 4000 breeds recorded in the twentieth century had become extinct by 2000, and a fifth of reported breeds are now classified as at risk [91]. Using germplasm in SSA will need technical, economic and policy support. Revitalizing agricultural extension services, whether private or in the public sector, is key: no farmers will grow crops or raise livestock they do not know, are not able to sell, and are not used to eating. Fourth, the social, economic and political processes that contribute to vulnerability and food insecurity must be addressed with even greater vigour. Food insecurity has received renewed policy attention since 2008, when several high-level meetings on food security were held in response to the food price crisis. Political reforms have been proposed, and countries have made commitments to better food system governance and increased investment in smallholder agriculture. In addition, the momentum for supporting community-based and local adaptation is building in communities of practice; however, this requires higher-level policy and institutional support to ensure that local-level adaptation is enabled and communities are empowered. The agricultural landscape of SSA is likely to undergo considerable change in the coming decades as a result of several different drivers. Food systems will have to adapt to ensure food security for the extra billion people who will be populating the African continent by 2050, and this will require broad and integrated (yet locally context-specific) institutional and policy responses. It would not be wise to bank on limiting climate change to +2 ◦ C, and we should be prepared for more. Some places may see sustainable intensification of production, where this is possible, others may see shifts in crop and livestock production, and some of the drylands are likely to need sustainable extensification as cropping becomes ever riskier. Keeping smallholders’ options open is key, and a substantial part of this will lie in much better understanding of the limits to adaptation and the thresholds beyond which much more radical action will be needed, if food security is to be achieved in SSA. We are very grateful to Mark New and Gil Lizcano for making climate model data available to us, and to two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments on an earlier draft. Remaining errors and omissions are our own responsibility. References 1 UNPD (United Nations Population Division). 2008 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. See http://esa.un.org/unpp. 2 Delgado, C. 2005 Rising demand for meat and milk in developing countries: implications for grasslands-based livestock production. In Grassland: a global resource (ed. D. A. McGilloway), pp. 29–39. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Wageningen Academic Publishers. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
132 P. K. Thornton et al. 3 Frayne, B. & Pendleton, W. 2010 The state of urban food insecurity in southern Africa. In Urban food security series (eds J. Crush & B. Frayne). African Food Security Urban Network. Cape Town, South Africa: Unity Press. 4 Maddison, A. 2003 The world economy: historical statistics. Paris, France: OECD. 5 Popkin, B. M. 2004 The nutrition transition in the developing world. In Food policy old and new (eds S. Maxwell & R. Slater), pp. 43–56. London, UK: Blackwell Publishing. 6 Rosegrant, M. W. et al. 2009 Looking into the future for agriculture and AKST (agricultural knowledge science and technology). In Agriculture at a crossroads (eds B. D. McIntyre, H. R. Herren, J. Wakhungu & R. T. Watson), pp. 307–376. Washington, DC: Island Press. 7 Van Vuren, D. P. et al. 2009 Outlook on agricultural change and its drivers. In Agriculture at a crossroads (eds B. D. McIntyre, H. R. Herren, J. Wakhungu & R. T. Watson), pp. 255–305. Washington, DC: Island Press. 8 Von Braun, J. & Diaz-Bonilla, E. 2008 Globalization of agriculture and food: causes, consequences and policy implications. In Globalization of food and agriculture and the poor (eds J. Von Braun & E. Diaz-Bonilla), pp. 1–46. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. 9 FAOSTAT. 2009 Statistical databases. See http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/food-securitystatistics/en/. 10 USAID (United States Agency for International Development). 2003 Congressional Budget Justification FY 2004: Sub-Saharan Africa. See http://www.usaid.gov/policy/budget/cbj2004/ sub-saharan_africa/. 11 Spielman, D. J. & Pandya-Lorch, R. 2009 Millions fed: proven successes in agricultural development. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. 12 Adger, W. N., Agrawala, S., Mirza, M. M. Q., Conde, C., O’Brien, K., Pulhin, J., Pulwarty, R., Smit, B. & Takahashi, K. 2007 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (eds M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden & C. E. Hanson), pp. 717–743. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 13 Challinor, A. J., Ewert, F., Arnold, S., Simelton, E. & Fraser, E. 2009 Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 2775–2789. (doi:10.1093/jxb/erp062) 14 Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Craufurd, P. & Kassam, A. 2007 Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Clim. Change 83, 381–399. (doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9249-0) 15 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007 Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Summary for policy makers. See http://www.ipcc.cg/SPM13 apr07.pdf. 16 New, M., Liverman, D. & Anderson, K. 2009 Mind the gap. Nat. Rep. Clim. Change 3, 143–144. (doi:10.1038/climate.2009.126) 17 Nakicenovic, N. et al. 2000 Emissions scenarios: a special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ), p. 509. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 18 Meehl, G. A. et al. 2007 Global climate projections. In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 19 Challinor, A. J., Osborne, T., Morse, A., Shaffrey, L., Wheeler, T. & Weller, H. 2009 Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 825–835. (doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2403.1) 20 Wilby, R. L., Troni, J., Biot, Y., Tedd, L., Hewitson, B. C., Smith, D. M. & Sutton, R. T. 2009 A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. Int. J. Climatol. 29, 1193–1215. (doi:10.1002/joc.1839) 21 Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G. & Jarvis, A. 2005 Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1965–1978. (doi:10.1002/joc.1276) 22 Jones, P. G., Thornton, P. K., Diaz, W. & Wilkens, P. W. 2002 MARKSIM: a computer tool that generates simulated weather data for crop modeling and risk assessment, p. 88. Cali, Colombia: CIAT. (CD-ROM Series) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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