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Rethinking adaptation for a +4 ◦ C world 213 into decision-making at all levels of society. We have sought to advance this systematization here, recognizing that this can be developed and enriched much further. This systematization aims to minimize the potential effects of various psychological, cognitive and institutional barriers on the decision-making process. While we have made the case that this outcome should follow, we present it as a hypothesis now more able to be tested with practitioners in the future. These barriers will not be entirely alleviated by a logical process alone and our approach needs translating and framing for any given institutional context. In practice, decisions about responding to climate change must be taken in the context of many other social and environmental changes, and may have trades-offs related to other decisions aimed at the more general achievement of sustainability. The further development and uptake of these ideas would thus benefit from building a set of practical examples that people can observe, a process that can be supported by governments at all levels. In this regard, the gradual emergence of case studies such as those noted in this paper is encouraging, and their systematization into frameworks such as that proposed in this paper to guide decision-makers in practice is an urgent task. The work of M.S.S. reported in this publication was supported by CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship. L.H. and A.H. were supported by AEA. We are grateful for the comments of Sarah Park, Andrew Ash, Mark New and three anonymous reviewers. We also thank Tim Reeder of the Environment Agency for sharing his insights and experience of the TE2100 project. References 1 Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Hemming, D. L., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A. & Sanderson, M. G. 2011 When could global warming reach 4 ◦ C? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 67–84. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292) 2 Anderson, K. & Bows, A. 2011 Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 20–44. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290) 3 Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Ericksen, P. J. & Challinor, A. J. 2011 Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 ◦ C+ world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 117–136. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0246) 4 Fung, F., Lopez, A. & New, M. 2011 Water availability in +2 ◦ C and +4 ◦ C worlds. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 99–116. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0293) 5 Nicholls, R. J., Marinova, N., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Vellinga, P., de Gusmão, D., Hinkel, J. & Tol, R. S. J. 2011 Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4 ◦ C world’ in the twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 161–181. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0291) 6 Pittock, A. B. & Jones, R. N. 2000 Adaptation to what and why? Environ. Monit. Assess. 61, 9–35. (doi:10.1023/A:1006393415542) 7 Adger, N. & Barnett, J. 2009 Four reasons for concern about adaptation to climate change. Environ. Plan. A 41, 2800–2805. (doi:10.1068/a42244) 8 Hallegatte, S. 2009 Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob. Environ. Change Hum. Policy Dimens. 19, 240–247. 9 Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S. & Schellnhuber, H. J. 2008 Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786–1793. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105) 10 Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R. & Pielke, R. J. 2008 Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? In Adapting to climate change: thresholds, values, governance (eds W. N. Adger, I. Lorenzoni & K. L. O’Brien), pp. 64–78. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 11 Jones, R. N. 2000 Managing uncertainty in climate change projections—issues for impact assessment: an editorial comment. Clim. Change 45, 403–419. (doi:10.1023/A:1005551626280) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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