Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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190 F. Gemenne migration is considered as a dramatic and unavoidable consequence of climate change impacts, with little account of people’s agency and ability to respond. As a result, most policy discussions revolve around issues of protection and security rather than of governance and mobility. As no international regime exists to assist those displaced by climate change, many policy proposals have recommended that a new convention or treaty be drafted to fill this gap in international law [47,48]. Most of the debates have focused on the international status that could be granted to the displaced, with many authors lamenting that the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees does not apply to those displaced by environmental events [47,49]. An international status, however, would be inapplicable in most cases of climate-induced displacements, as these are primarily internal movements, beyond the reach of an international status. Despite this fact, various legislative proposals have been made in different parliaments, including those of Australia and Belgium, with the aim of establishing an international status for ‘climate change refugees’. Overall, the issue remains framed in either a security agenda or a humanitarian one. As described earlier, in a 4 ◦ C+ world, the adaptive capacities of many regions are likely to be overwhelmed by the impacts of climate change. Policy responses would therefore be crucial to enhance the migration options of those affected by the impacts. Yet, it appears that the current policy directions and development proposals remain rooted in a deterministic perspective, and take little account of empirical evidence. These policies would therefore be inadequate in the face of the greater and different migratory pressures in a 4 ◦ C+ world. In particular, this paper contends that policies should be more focused on assisting migration, both internal and cross-border, rather than limiting it. In order to achieve this goal, different policy agendas are needed. (a) Fostering the right to mobility As adaptation strategies will be a key element of the fight against climate change in a 4◦C+ world, policy responses would need, in particular, to promote the right to mobility. Migration can indeed be an efficient adaptation strategy and traditional patterns of mobility in relation to environmental changes will most probably be deeply disrupted. Migration, in many cases, would need to be encouraged rather than avoided. Migration would have to become a core element of the affected populations’ adaptive capacity, rather than a symptom of adaptation failure. This would also imply that the current security agenda be replaced by an adaptation agenda with regard to mobility. From a policy viewpoint, fostering the right to mobility with regard to climate change impacts means two things. First, barriers to migration remain considerable in many parts of the world, including at the internal level. These barriers would need to be lifted for migration to unleash its full potential as an adaptation strategy. Second, the most vulnerable often lack the resources to migrate. As environmental crises will become more frequent and more severe, it is likely that households’ resources will not be available for migration, but would be used instead to meet the households’ primary needs. Transfers of resources will therefore be needed in order to foster the right to mobility for the most vulnerable. The financial burden of migration could be met through adaptation Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Climate-induced population displacements 191 funding, provided this funding includes a provision for migration. In a 4 ◦ C+ world, if the most vulnerable are not enabled to move to safer places, they will find themselves directly at risk of climate change impacts with tragic humanitarian implications. In that regard, the issue of proactive displacements is not an easy one. Some governments, such as those of China and Mozambique, have started displacing their populations in anticipation of environmental changes. These populations need to be provided with adequate compensation, and human rights, including the right to choose one’s destination, should be a policy priority. In any case, people should not be displaced against their will, and education and information about climate change impacts need to be improved. (b) Adaptation in the destination regions Adaptation remains largely envisioned as a way to prevent displacement in the regions of origin. Adaptation will also be needed, however, in the regions of destination. These regions will be faced with additional influxes of population. They will therefore need to adapt to both climate change impacts and higher demographic pressures, especially if they are already highly populated. If adaptation policies are not also directed to destination regions, these regions might find themselves unable to meet the needs of their populations. Emergency humanitarian aid will be insufficient to meet these requirements, as migrants will also need to be provided with jobs, housing, schools, etc. After Hurricane Katrina, the city of Houston welcomed an estimated 150 000–200 000 displaced residents from Louisiana. They were provided with emergency supplies and housing, as the authorities of Houston expected them to return home within a couple of weeks. It took several months, however, before residents could return to New Orleans, and many decided to resettle in Houston and in the region. The city of Houston, however, experienced a surge in crime, drug use and racism as a result of its inability to provide many of the displaced with jobs and long-term housing. The humanitarian agenda will therefore need to shift towards a development agenda, as population movements are expected to become increasingly long-term and permanent movements. Migrants should not be considered as resourceless victims, but should be empowered in order to develop their adaptive capacities once in the destination region. The current deterministic perspective, however, continues to envision them as ‘refugees’, a label that could hinder their resilience and resourcefulness, ultimately impeding their resettlement in the destination region. (c) Protection and assistance As noted earlier, those displaced by climate change are not entitled to any kind of international protection or assistance. No international organization or United Nations (UN) agency has a mandate to deal with environmental displacement, though both the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) now intervene regularly in situations of natural disasters to provide humanitarian assistance to the displaced. As forced migration worldwide would most probably increase as a result of a 4◦C+ temperature increase, adequate mechanisms of protection and Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
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50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
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52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
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54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
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56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
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60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
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62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
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66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
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88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
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92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
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96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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Agriculture and food systems in sub
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
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122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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134 P. K. Thornton et al. 41 Erikse
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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