Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

0 retraction risk 17
120
80
40
0
−40
−80
(a)
0 expansion opportunity 17
0 temperature boundary 17
% change
Humid tropical forests on a warmer planet 153
120
80
40
0
−40
−80
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
−120
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011)
Downloaded from
rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
120
80
40
0
−40
−80
% change
% change
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
−120
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
−120
120
80
40
0
−40
−80
(b)
% change
120
80
40
0
−40
−80
% change
120
80
40
0
−40
−80
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
−120
% change
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
−120
6 29 53 76 100
% of models
−120
Figure 5. Change in the potential climatological niche of HTFs, as inferred from AOGCM data. (a) HTF niche at 2◦C and (b) 4◦C global warming.
This scenario accounts for the decrease in ecosystem water demand in new climate regimes, modelled in the land-surface scheme (see also figure 4).
Dark grey areas mark the niche derived from the current climatological conditions, and are predicted to remain by all AOGCMs. Shades of red and
green mark the potential HTF niche contraction and expansion, respectively. Areas too cold for HTFs are marked in blue. In mountainous areas
adjacent to HTFs, they define the boundary between lowland and montane tropical forests. Inset bar plots show the percentage of models that agree
on a change up to the plotted level.