Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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(a) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S (b) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S 180° DJF JJA Temperature and precipitation change 95 90° W 0 90° E Figure 4. Areas most strongly affected by high-end climate change in (a) DJF and (b) JJA. The temperature and precipitation changes from the high-end models were scaled to a global mean warming of 4 ◦ C. The coloured areas indicate where precipitation changes by at least ±10% and temperature increases by at least 6 ◦ C for 4 ◦ C global warming. Yellow colour indicates areas where precipitation decreases, and at least 66% of the models agree on the sign of the change. Light green, light blue and dark blue colours show areas where precipitation increases by 10% or more for 4 ◦ C global warming. The light green colour areas show where one or more models project a temperature rise of at least 6 ◦ C, and at least 66% of the models project a precipitation increase. The blue colours indicate regions where all models project a temperature rise of at least 6 ◦ C, and 90% (light blue) or 100% (dark blue) of the models agree on the sign of the precipitation change. paragraph. Light green, light blue and dark blue colours show areas where precipitation increases by 10 per cent or more for 4 ◦ C global warming. The light green areas show where one or more models project a temperature rise of at least 6 ◦ C, and at least 66 per cent of the models project a precipitation increase. The blue colours indicate regions where all models project a temperature rise of at least 6 ◦ C, and 90 per cent (light blue) or 100 per cent (dark blue) of the models agree on the sign of the precipitation change. The green and blue colours, therefore, represent the minimum (dark blue) and maximum (all green and blue colours) extent of regions projected to experience temperature and precipitation increases above the limits set earlier. The yellow areas in figure 4 indicate those regions where precipitation decreases by 10 per cent or more, at least 66 per cent of the models agree on the sign of the change and all models project a temperature rise of 6 ◦ C or more. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (figure 4a), the spatial extent of the maximum and minimum areas projected to experience the highest climate changes under a global warming of 4 ◦ C is very different, highlighting the uncertainty that mostly originates from the different temperature changes projected by the models. There are smaller regions (Mexico, northern Africa and parts of Southeast Asia) shown in yellow where there is reasonable confidence that precipitation will decrease. For JJA (figure 4b), Central America, parts of Brazil, southern Africa, and parts of Europe, northern Africa and the adjacent part of Central Asia are projected to suffer large rises in temperature and decreased precipitation. Small parts of the USA and Australia could be similarly affected. Much of the high northern latitude regions are projected to receive increases in precipitation together with large temperature rises. Other locations (the Arabian Peninsula, parts of northern India) may also change in the same way, but the areas are small. There are no regions during JJA where the temperature rises by 6 ◦ C, and 90 per cent or more of the models agree on the sign of the precipitation change (if that change is at least 10%). For JJA, the uncertainty in the projections mostly originates from differences in modelled precipitation changes. 4. Conclusions Forty global climate model projections using the A2 scenario from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report have been analysed, and a number of simulations that project a high-end warming of 4 ◦ C or more by the 2090s (relative to the preindustrial period) were found. About half of the simulations were classed as high-end. Under the high-end models, Northern Africa is projected to experience high (greater than 6 ◦ C) temperature increases and large precipitation decreases in both DJF and JJA, suggesting that this region is most at risk from high-end climate change. In addition, during JJA, Southern Europe and the adjacent part of Central Asia are projected to warm by 6–8 ◦ C, together with a decrease in precipitation of 10 per cent or more. This result suggests that drier soils, a consequence of the reduced precipitation, are the cause of the elevated temperatures, as the evaporative cooling effect will be smaller. The large-scale patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the high-end and non-high-end projections are similar, although the magnitudes of temperature change were larger in the high-end models, especially during JJA. The main difference in the regional temperature response of the high-end models from the non-high-end models occurs over much of the Northern Hemisphere land areas during JJA. The high-end models project enhanced warming over most of northern Asia, Canada and the USA. The patterns and magnitude of the precipitation changes (scaled to a global mean warming of 4 ◦ C) are similar in the high-end and non-high-end models, although the reductions in precipitation tend to be slightly greater in the high-end models. The regions where the greatest climate changes occur under 4 ◦ C global warming were identified using results from the high-end models. These regions are defined as those where temperatures increase by at least 6 ◦ C and precipitation changes by at least 10 per cent. During DJF, high northern latitude land areas, Mexico and parts of northern Africa are identified. For JJA, the largest climate Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
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164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
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166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
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168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
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170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
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172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
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174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
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176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
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180 R. J. Nicholls et al. 43 Pardae
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Climate-induced population displace
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198 M. Stafford Smith et al. the di
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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