Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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Temperature and precipitation change 89 and June, July and August (JJA), averaged over the period 2070–2099, were calculated from the high-end and non-high-end projections together with the maximum range from each group of models. Median values are used instead of the mean, because mean values are subject to bias from models that produce very large or very small changes that could be considered as outliers. It is possible that the regional patterns of warming in the high-end and nonhigh-end models are similar, but are simply larger in magnitude in the high-end models. To focus on the regional responses, for each simulation, we normalized the local warming in each grid box by dividing by the global mean warming. This normalization was done separately for DJF and JJA. This approach assumes that the response of the models to global temperature change is linear, which has been shown to be a reasonable assumption [14]. The resulting patterns shown in figures 1 and 2 are the median regional temperature responses simulated by the models per degree of global mean temperature increase (colour-shaded contours) and the 5th–95th percentile range of temperature changes from each set of models (solid contours with labels). The largest normalized regional temperature changes occur during DJF and are located over much of the Arctic for both high-end and non-high-end models (figure 1a,b) and have very similar magnitudes. These changes are much greater than those for JJA (figure 2a,b). The largest increases in DJF occur over Canada and the northern half of Asia and are about 4 ◦ C per 1 ◦ C of global warming. This large temperature increase at high northern latitudes is caused by the loss of ice and reduced winter snow coverage, exposing land and oceans which will absorb large amounts of incoming solar radiation (which will act to amplify the warming). Additionally, there will also be changes in the poleward energy transport, which is simulated to increase with rising temperature [15]. However, the range of temperature changes in the Arctic from the models is similar to or larger than the actual temperature change (figure 1a,b, solid contours with labels). Climate models are known to have large biases in their simulations of ice and snow cover over high northern latitudes. Models that simulate a large amount of snow and ice for the present-day climate are likely to simulate a large degree of warming in this region as the ice retreats. Models that simulate lower ice coverage in the Arctic will produce a smaller amount of warming [13]. The magnitude and inter-model range of simulated warming over high northern latitudes are very similar in the high-end and non-high-end models, which indicates that the biases among the models are larger than the climate change signal. Figure 1c shows the difference between the normalized high-end and non-highend temperature changes for DJF. A positive value indicates that the high-end models are warmer than the non-high-end models. The high-end models are colder by 0.5 ◦ C per 1 ◦ C global warming or more over the northeastern edge of Europe and the nearby Arctic regions, and around the northern parts of Japan. They simulate warmer temperatures around the coasts of Canada, Alaska, Greenland and the Arctic region of Asia. Warmer areas are also simulated by the high-end models over Central Asia, the northern coast of South America and northwestern Australia. Overall, the pattern-scaled temperature changes in the high-end and non-high-end models are similar over much of the globe, but there are some regional differences, indicating that the regional response of the high-end and non-high-end models to climate change is not completely identical. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S 180° 90° W 0 90° E 180° (b) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S 180° (c) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S 180° 1 3 1 2 –1.0 1 3 90° W 0 90° E 180° 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 90° W 2 3 1 4 2 1 2 34 0 90° E 180° –0.7 –0.3 0 0.3 0.7 1.0 Figure 1. Median temperature responses simulated by the models per degree of global mean temperature increase for DJF. (a) Median temperature changes from the high-end members, shown by the colour-shaded contours. The solid contours with labels show the range of temperature changes across the high-end models (again scaled by the global mean temperature rise). Note that the temperature scale changes at 3 ◦ C. (b) As(a), but for the non-high-end members. (c) Difference between the medians of the high-end and non-high-end members. A positive value indicates that the scaled temperatures in the high-end models are warmer than the non-high-end models. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 1 4 1 12
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
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164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
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166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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