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The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change Rachel Warren Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 217-241 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0271 References Rapid response Subject collections Email alerting service Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 This article cites 65 articles, 20 of which can be accessed free http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/217.full. html#ref-list-1 Article cited in: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/217.full.html#r elated-urls This article is free to access Respond to this article http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/letters/submit/roypta;369/ 1934/217 Articles on similar topics can be found in the following collections hydrology (19 articles) atmospheric science (44 articles) climatology (75 articles) To subscribe to Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A go to: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/subscriptions Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article - sign up in the box at the top right-hand corner of the article or click here This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 217–241 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0271 The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change BY RACHEL WARREN* Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4◦C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4◦C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2◦C world. In a 4◦C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4◦C world. By contrast, a 2◦C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth’s forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2◦C or a4◦C world. Keywords: climate change; integrated assessment modelling; adaptation; extreme weather events; ecosystem services; biodiversity *r.warren@uea.ac.uk Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 One contribution of 13 to a Theme Issue ‘Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications’. 217 This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
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50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
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52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
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54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
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56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
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60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
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62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
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64 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. 4. Conc
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66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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Review. Global warming reaching 4
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
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88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
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90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90°
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92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
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96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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Agriculture and food systems in sub
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
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122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
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164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
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166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
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