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Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet Przemyslaw Zelazowski, Yadvinder Malhi, Chris Huntingford, Stephen Sitch and Joshua B. Fisher Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 137-160 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0238 Supplementary data References Rapid response Subject collections Email alerting service Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 "Data Supplement" http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/suppl/2010/11/18/ 369.1934.137.DC1.html This article cites 64 articles, 15 of which can be accessed free http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/137.full. html#ref-list-1 Article cited in: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/137.full.html#r elated-urls Respond to this article http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/letters/submit/roypta;369/ 1934/137 Articles on similar topics can be found in the following collections climatology (75 articles) To subscribe to Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A go to: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/subscriptions Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article - sign up in the box at the top right-hand corner of the article or click here This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 137–160 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0238 Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet BY PRZEMYSLAW ZELAZOWSKI 1,∗ ,YADVINDER MALHI 1 , CHRIS HUNTINGFORD 2 ,STEPHEN SITCH 3 AND JOSHUA B. FISHER 4 1 Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK 2 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK 3 School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK 4 NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models, which work at low spatial resolution, whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on the current and future distribution of humid tropical forests (HTFs). We first characterize their contemporary climatological niche using annual rainfall and maximum climatological water stress, which also adequately describe the current distribution of other biomes within the tropics. As a first-order approximation of the potential extent of HTFs in future climate regimes defined by global warming of 2 ◦ C and 4 ◦ C, we investigate changes in the niche through a combination of climate-change anomaly patterns and higher resolution (5 km) maps of current climatology. The climate anomalies are derived using data from 17 coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our results confirm some risk of forest retreat, especially in eastern Amazonia, Central America and parts of Africa, but also indicate a potential for expansion in other regions, for example around the Congo Basin. The finer spatial scale enabled the depiction of potential resilient and vulnerable zones with practically useful detail. We further refine these estimates by considering the impact of new environmental regimes on plant water demand using the UK Met Office land-surface scheme (of the HadCM3 AOGCM). The CO2-related reduction in plant water demand lowers the risk of die-back and can lead to possible niche ∗ Author for correspondence (przemyslaw.zelazowski@ouce.ox.ac.uk). Electronic supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2010.0238 or via http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org. One contribution of 13 to a Theme Issue ‘Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications’. 137 This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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