Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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28 K. Anderson and A. Bows This dataset is identical to the one used within Anderson & Bows [2] but in this case individual national statistics are aggregated to produce the Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 totals. (c) Economic downturn The economic downturn of 2007–2009 had a direct impact on greenhouse gas emission growth rates, particularly those associated with energy. Although the crisis is beginning to show within 2008 emissions inventories, data were not available for either 2008–2010 bunker fuel emissions or 2009–2010 domestic fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In the absence of such data, estimates draw on the work of Macintosh [3] and the Global Carbon Project [41]. For Annex 1 nations, fossil fuel CO2 (excluding bunkers) is assumed to decline by 6 per cent in 2009, stabilizing at 0 per cent in 2010. Non-Annex 1 nations are assumed to exhibit 0.5 per cent decline in emissions in 2009, but given China is already reporting high levels of growth for early 2010, the 2010 growth figure is assumed to be half the recent decade’s average (i.e. 2.7%). Consequently, growth in global fossil fuel CO2 (excluding bunkers) is assumed to be −3.0 per cent in 2009 rising to 1.5 per cent in 2010. For international aviation bunkers, it is estimated Annex 1 nations’ emissions declined by 2 per cent in 2008, remaining static in 2009 and 2010. Non-Annex 1 nation aviation bunkers are assumed to be stable at 2007 levels until 2009, after which they grow at 2 per cent in 2010, again half the recent decade’s average. Given the international marine bunker figures are based on proportions of global GDP, the same percentage growth rates for national emission trends are applied as for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 domestic CO2 emissions between 2008 and 2010. For the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, it is assumed that their growth is also impacted by the economic downturn. However, non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission growth rates are typically lower than those for global fossil fuel CO2 by approximately 1–2% per year. Given the absence of recent data from the EPA, Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions are assumed to proportionally follow the percentage change in their CO2 counterparts. In other words, if the rate of growth halves for Annex 1 CO2 emissions, then the rate of growth for non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is also assumed to halve. 4. Scenario pathway development Following a brief explanation of how historical and deforestation emissions are accounted for, the construction of the scenario pathways involves the following steps. — Decide on a global cumulative CO2 and greenhouse gas emission budget associated with a range of probabilities of exceeding 2 ◦ C. — Construct emission pathways for the non-Annex 1 nations with varying peak dates. — Construct emission pathways for the Annex 1 nations for which the cumulative emissions, when added to non-Annex 1 and deforestation emissions, do not exceed the global ‘2 ◦ C’ cumulative budget. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Beyond dangerous climate change 29 — Construct emission pathways for the non-Annex 1 nations with a 2030 peak date and more ‘orthodox’ annual reduction rates following the peak. — Construct emission pathways for the Annex 1 nations with a 2015 peak date and ‘orthodox’ annual emission-reduction rates following the peak. — Assess the potential future climate impact of these more ‘politically acceptable’ and ‘economic feasible’ pathways. (a) Historical emissions In developing emission pathways for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 regions it is necessary to make explicit which region is deemed responsible for which emissions. While the following analysis focuses specifically on the period 2000–2100, it is important to reflect briefly on the treatment of recent historical emissions. Given temperature correlates with cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, a case could be made for considering the responsibility for twentieth century emissions in apportioning future twenty-first century emission-space between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 regions. However, the highly constrained emission-space now remaining for a 2–3 ◦ C rise in global mean surface temperature leaves little option but to explicitly neglect the responsibility of historical emissions in developing pragmatic twenty-first century emission profiles. 17 Getting an appropriate balance of responsibilities is a matter of judgement that inevitably will not satisfy all stakeholders and certainly will be open to challenge. As it stands, the approach adopted for this paper in which historical (and deforestation) emissions are taken to be global overheads, 18 is a pragmatic decision that, if anything, errs in favour of the Annex 1 nations. 19 (b) Deforestation emissions To explore the constraints on emissions from Annex 1 nations of continued growth in emissions from non-Annex 1 nations, only data for fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes and agriculture are split between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1. Deforestation emissions are treated as a global overhead and thus removed from the available emission budgets prior to developing the pathways. Such an approach could be argued to unreasonably favour non-Annex 1 nations as deforestation emissions occur within their geographical boundaries. However, given most Annex 1 countries have already deforested (emitting CO2) it could 17 Factoring twentieth century emissions from Annex 1 nations into calculations of the ‘fair’ emission space available for Annex 1 in the twenty-first century would leave Annex 1 nations already in ‘emission debt’. Whilst such an outcome may have some moral legitimacy, it evidently would not provide for a politically consensual framing of emission apportionment. However, the implications of including twentieth century emissions and the concept of emission debt may guide the scope and scale of climate-related financial transfers (arguably as reparation) between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations. 18 Emissions not attributable to any specific geographical location. 19 It is worth noting that a recent paper [45] based on analysis undertaken at Tsinghua University in Beijing makes the case that ‘reasonable rights and interests should be strived for, based on the equity principle, reflected through cumulative emissions per capita’. Building on this cumulative emissions per capita approach, the authors demonstrate how China’s historical cumulative emissions are only one-tenth of the average in industrial countries and one-twentieth that of the USA. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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