Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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152 P. Zelazowski et al. (a) (b) 140 2.0 1.5 120 NPP (kg m –2 yr –1 ) 1.0 0.5 0 −0.5 1980 2010 2040 year 2070 (c) 140 (d) ET (mm month –1 ) 120 100 80 60 NPP (kg m –2 yr –1 ) 100 80 60 2°C 4°C 2°C 4°C 2100 2°C 4°C 400 500 600 CO (ppm) 2 700 800 ET (mm month –1 ) 1980 2010 2040 year 2070 2100 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 −0.5 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 temperature (°C) Figure 4. (a) Changes in the NPP of HTFs across SRES A2 scenario simulated with land-surface scheme and climate-change patterns from 16 AOGCM runs. The 39 considered grid boxes are situated within tropics (see inset map) and are covered by broadleaved forests in at least 90%. Red solid curve marks an average of pathways in which NPP does not drop below minimum contemporary levels (marked in solid black). The dashed red curve is an average of all cases (including the pathways reaching low NPP values, which are marked in grey). (b) Corresponding changes in evapotranspiration; red curves have the same role as in (a). (c) Relationship between the atmospheric CO2 concentration and evapotranspiration, with regression lines marked in red. (d) NPP plotted against monthly mean temperature. minimum contemporary levels occurred at varying temperatures, so any specific temperature threshold for HTF functioning could not be established (figure 4c). These results are generally consistent with the simple approach to delineate the HTF niche, and the appearance of some risk of die-back at the +2 ◦ C scenario, which in some areas becomes substantial at the +4 ◦ C scenario. In order to avoid confusing the ET decrease that reflects better plant water efficiency in the CO2-enriched atmosphere, with the ET decrease induced by the declining NPP, all pathways with NPP that fell below the minimum contemporary levels were excluded from the analysis. Taking into account the possible decrease in ecosystem water demand drastically changed the estimates of the HTF potential niche in the future (figure 5), overall shifting the scenarios towards potential forest expansion. At +2 ◦ C, the scenario of severe niche contraction in South America is offset by the potential niche expansion southeastwards. In Africa, the potential for expansion markedly prevails over the contraction. Finally, there is a small potential for niche expansion in continental south Asia (i.e. expansion of humid forest into monsoonal Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0 −40 −80 (a) 0 expansion opportunity 17 0 temperature boundary 17 % change Humid tropical forests on a warmer planet 153 120 80 40 0 −40 −80 6 29 53 76 100 % of models −120 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 120 80 40 0 −40 −80 % change % change 6 29 53 76 100 % of models −120 6 29 53 76 100 % of models −120 120 80 40 0 −40 −80 (b) % change 120 80 40 0 −40 −80 % change 120 80 40 0 −40 −80 6 29 53 76 100 % of models −120 % change 6 29 53 76 100 % of models −120 6 29 53 76 100 % of models −120 Figure 5. Change in the potential climatological niche of HTFs, as inferred from AOGCM data. (a) HTF niche at 2◦C and (b) 4◦C global warming. This scenario accounts for the decrease in ecosystem water demand in new climate regimes, modelled in the land-surface scheme (see also figure 4). Dark grey areas mark the niche derived from the current climatological conditions, and are predicted to remain by all AOGCMs. Shades of red and green mark the potential HTF niche contraction and expansion, respectively. Areas too cold for HTFs are marked in blue. In mountainous areas adjacent to HTFs, they define the boundary between lowland and montane tropical forests. Inset bar plots show the percentage of models that agree on a change up to the plotted level.
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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