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236 R. Warren modelling approaches needs to be taken into account. Such feedbacks are much more likely to operate in a 4 ◦ C world, potentially increasing global mean temperature rise still further. These risks would be much reduced in a2 ◦ C world. Table 3’s synthesis of impacts in a 2 ◦ C and 4 ◦ C world includes results produced by the AVOID project (www.avoid.uk.net), which is funded by the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. References 1 Parry, M. (ed.) 2004 An assessment of the global effects of climate change under SRES emissions and socioeconomic conditions. Glob. Environ. Change 14. 2 Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. 2000 Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 3 Goodess, C. M., Hanson, C., Hulme, M. & Osborn, T. J. 2003 Representing climate and extreme weather events in integrated assessment models: a review of existing methods and options for development. Integr. Assess. 4, 145–171. (doi:10.1076/iaij.4.3.145.23772) 4 MNP. 2006 An overview of IMAGE 2.4. In Integrated modelling of global environmental change. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) (eds A. F. Bouwman, T. Kram & K. Klein Goldewijk). Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Bilthoven. 5 Warren, R. et al. 2008 Development of the community integrated assessment system (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change, and of SoftIAM, its supporting software. Environ. Model. Soft. 23, 592–610. (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.09.015) 6 Mastrandrea, M. D. 2009 Calculating the benefits of climate policy: examining the assumptions of integrated assessment models. Pew Center for Climate Change Report. See http://www. pewclimate.org/benefits-workshop/mastrandrea-calculating-benefits-of-climate-policy. 7 Tol, R. S. J. 1999 Safe policies in an uncertain climate: an application of FUND. Glob. Environ. Change 9, 221–232. (doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00011-4) 8 Hope, C. 2006 The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: an integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC’s five reasons for concern. Integr. Assess. 6, 19–56. 9 Nordhaus, W. D&Boyer,M.2000 Warming the world: economic models of global warming. Cambridge: MIT. 10 Manne, A., Mendelsohn, R. & Richels, R. 1995 A model for evaluating regional and global effects of greenhouse policies. Energy Policy 23, 17–24. (doi:10.1016/0301-4215(95) 90763-W) 11 Warren, R., Mastrandrea, M., Hope, C. & Hof, A. 2010 Variation in the climatic response of integrated models. Clim. Change 102, 671–685. (doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9769-x) 12 IPCC. 2007 Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. Le Roy Miller Jr & Z. Chen). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 13 Anthoff, D. & Tol, R. S. J. 2009 Fund technical description. See http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/ fileadmin/fnu-files/staff/tol/FundTechnicalDescription.pdf. 14 Hope, C. 2009 How deep should the deep cuts be? Optimal CO2 emissions over time under uncertainty. Clim. Policy 9, 3–8. (doi:10.3763/cpol.2008.0544) 15 Ritchie, J. T. & Otter, S. 1995 Description and performance of CERESWheat: a user oriented wheat-yield model. In ARS Wheat Yield Project (ed. W. O. Willis), pp. 159–175. ARS-38. Washington, DC: Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service. 16 Mearns, L. (ed.) 2003 Issues in the impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C world 237 17 Mendelsohn, R. & Neumann, J. (eds) 1999 The impact of climate change on the United States economy. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. 18 Darwin, R. 2004 Effects of greenhouse gas emissions on world agriculture, food consumption, and economic welfare. Clim. Change 66, 191–238. (doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000043138. 67784.27) 19 Schneider, S. 1997 Integrated assessment modelling of global climate change: transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen for hiding value-laden assumptions? Environ. Model. Assess. 2, 229–249. (doi:10.1023/A:1019090117643) 20 Fischer, G., Shah, M., van Velthiuzen, H. & Nachtergaele, F. O. 2001 Global agroecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century. IIASA Research Report 02-02. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. 21 Easterling, W. E. et al. 2007 Food, fibre and forest products. In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden & C. E. Hanson), pp. 273–313. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 22 Goulden, M., Conway, D. & Pereschino, A. 2009 Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review. Hydrol. Sci. 54, 805–828. (doi:10.1623/hysj.54.5.805) 23 Parry, M. 2001 Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets. Glob. Environ. Change 11, 1–3. (doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5) 24 Parry, M., Rosenzweig, C. & Livermore, M. 2005 Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 2125–2136. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1751) 25 Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R., Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F., Ragoonaden, S. & Woodroffe, C. D. 2007 Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden & C. E. Hanson), pp. 315–356. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 26 Nicholls, R. J., Hoozemans, F. M. J. & Marchand, M. 1999 Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Glob. Environ. Change 9, S69–S87. (doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00019-9) 27 Warren, R. et al. 2010 The economics and climate change impacts of various greenhouse gas emission pathways: a comparison between baseline and policy emission scenarios. London: DEFRA. See www.avoid.uk.net. 28 Hoozemans, F. M. J., Marchand, M. & Pennkamp, H. A. 1993 A global vulnerability analysis: vulnerability assessment for population, coastal wetlands, and rice production on a global scale, 2nd edn. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics. 29 Wassman, R., Nguyen, T. H., Chu, T. H. & To, P. T. 2004 Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production. Clim. Change 66, 89–107. (doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000043144.69736.b7) 30 Nicholls, R. J., Marinova, N., Lowe, J.A., Brown, S., Vellinga, P., de Gusmão, D., Hinkel, J. & Tol, R. S. J. 2011 Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4 ◦ C world’ in the twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 161–181. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0291) 31 Jarvis, A., Lane, A. & Hijmans, R. 2008 The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 126, 13–23. (doi:10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.013) 32 Fischlin, A. et al. 2007 Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services. In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (eds M. L. Parry et al.), pp. 211–272. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 33 Chivian, E. & Bernstein, A. (eds) 2008 Sustaining life: how human health depends on biodiversity. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. 34 Newman, D. J., Kilama, J., Bernstein, A. & Chivian, E. 2008 Medicines from nature. In Sustaining life: how human health depends on biodiversity (eds E. Chivian & A. Bernstein), pp. 117–162. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
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88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
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122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
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172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
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174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
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176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
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