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80 R. A. Betts et al. Although GCMs were not used to project climate change under A1FI for the IPCC AR4, Meehl et al. [4] used an SCM to scale the results of the AR4 ensemble from other scenarios to estimate what the GCMs would have projected under A1FI. They estimated that the multi-model mean warming would have been approximately 4 ◦ C by the 2090s relative to 1980–1999, implying a warming of approximately 4.5 ◦ C relative to pre-industrial. As seen in §3 for the comparison of HadCM3-QUMP and AR4 ensembles under A1B, the estimated AR4-projected warming for A1FI is lower than that projected by HadCM3-QUMP. It is unwise to rely on simulations that are outliers in the distribution—indeed the most extreme members of the ensemble simulated warming of 1 ◦ Corabove by 2000, while warming observed between 1850–1899 and 2001–2005 was between 0.57 ◦ C and 0.95 ◦ C, with a best estimate of 0.76 ◦ C[1]. Hence, we caution against attaching too high a likelihood to the ensemble member that reaches 4 ◦ C by 2061 in response to the standard A1FI concentration scenario as represented here (in which no uncertainty in carbon-cycle feedbacks is taken into account). The extent to which this may need to be adjusted to account for carbon-cycle feedbacks is discussed in §4d. (d) Projected warming including uncertainties in atmospheric response and carbon-cycle feedbacks: an estimate using a simple climate model To estimate the climate changes that the HadCM3-perturbed physics ensemble would project with climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks included and driven by the A1FI emissions scenario, we followed the approach used in the IPCC AR4 by Meehl et al. [4], but with the climate sensitivity tuned against the HadCM3- QUMP GCM ensemble. Following Meehl et al. [4], we tuned MAGICC against the C4MIP models to represent the strengths of the carbon cycle. We carried out an ensemble of 729 simulations with MAGICC tuned in this way [31], and excluded the highest and lowest 10 per cent of projected rates of global warming from our judgement of ‘plausible’ climate changes (figure 9). Under A1FI, this ensemble projected a median warming of 5.6 ◦ C by 2100, with 4 ◦ C being reached at approximately 2070. The 10th and 90th percentiles encompassed a range of warming from 4.4 ◦ C to 7.3 ◦ C by the 2090s, with 4 ◦ C being reached between 2058 and 2088. This is broadly consistent with the results of Meehl et al. [4], with MAGICC tuned against the AR4 ensemble (table 3). The best estimate for reaching 4 ◦ C global warming relative to pre-industrial is approximately 5 years earlier in our ensemble, consistent with the HadCM3-QUMP ensemble exhibiting a systematically higher climate sensitivity than the AR4 ensemble as demonstrated with our comparison using the A1B scenario. A key question is whether any statement of likelihood can be attached to our results. The IPCC AR4 [4] used a number of lines of modelling evidence and expert judgement to define a likely range of warming projections for the 2090s, with ‘likely’ being defined as a greater than 66 per cent probability of occurrence. The previous results from MAGICC tuned to the AR4 ensemble and C4MIP (figure 7) gave a warming of up to 6.5 ◦ C by the 2090s (below the upper limit of the IPCC’s likely range) and reached 4 ◦ C in the early 2060s in the upper uncertainty bound. Therefore, a projection of global warming of 4 ◦ C relative to pre-industrial by the early 2060s would appear to be consistent with the IPCC’s likely range for the A1FI scenario. More systematic probabilistic Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1980 2000 Review. Global warming reaching 4 ◦ C 81 2020 2040 year 2060 2080 2100 Figure 9. Global mean temperature change over the twenty-first century relative to pre-industrial, under the A1FI emissions scenario, projected with an ensemble of 729 simulations with the MAGICC SCM tuned against the HadCM3-QUMP and C4MIP ensembles. The central thick line shows the median projection, and the two dashed lines show the 10th and 90th percentiles of the frequency distribution of the 729 MAGICC experiments. Table 3. Comparison of global warming projections by the 2090s for the A1FI scenario, from the HadCM3-QUMP ensemble, IPCC AR4 expert-assessment and MAGICC SCM ensembles tuned to AR4 + C4MIP and HadCM3-QUMP + C4MIP. The date of reaching 4 ◦ C is also given where this information is available. AR4 expert-assessment figures were originally given relative to 1980–1999. Here, we add 0.5 ◦ C warming to give warming relative to 1861–1990, as recommended in the IPCC AR4 synthesis report. (Note that the ‘date of reaching 4 ◦ C’ depends to some extent on inter-annual variability—for HadCM3-QUMP, we defined this date as the first year in which the annual mean temperature of that year and all subsequent years is at least 4 ◦ C greater than the mean of 1861– 1890, but MAGICC does not represent inter-annual variability, so the date of reaching 4 ◦ Cmaybe more representative of a long-term mean global temperature passing this threshold. Further details of AR4 simulations and expert assessment can be found in Meehl et al. [4].) date reaching warming by warming by 4 ◦ C (best date reaching source 2090s ( ◦ C) 2090s ( ◦ C) estimate) 4 ◦ C (range) MAGICC tuned to 4.9 (mean) 3.7–6.5 AR4 and C4MIP (±1 s.d.) IPCC AR4 expert 4.5 (scaled 2.9–6.9 assessment GCM mean) (likely range) HadCM3-QUMP 5.1 (median) 3.1–6.6 (full range) MAGICC tuned to 5.5 (median) 4.3–7.2 HadCM3 and C4MIP (10th–90th%) 2075 (mean) 2065–2100 (±1 s.d.) not reported not reported 2076 (median) 2061–after 2100 (full range) 2070 (median) 2058–2088 (10th–90th%) climate projections have previously been made for the UK using a complex, lengthy and systematic methodology bringing in as much of the available evidence as possible [30], but this methodology has not yet been applied to this specific problem. Our own MAGICC ensemble is designed to sample the uncertainty more Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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