Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

More documents

Recommendations

Info

192 F. Gemenne assistance will be needed to assist those forcibly displaced. Such mechanisms are already required today—the need for them would only be further reinforced in a 4 ◦ C+ world—as discussed by other authors [47,50]. (d) Statelessness Statelessness, defined by the UNHCR as the condition of a person not considered as a national by any state under the operation of its law, could also become an important policy issue in a 4 ◦ C+ world. It is understood that lowlying small island states are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and to sea-level rise and extreme weather events in particular. The sea-level rise that will be induced by a 4 ◦ C+ temperature change is expected to make some island states uninhabitable, and their governments might then have no other option than to organize the resettlement of their population abroad [51]. There are currently 38 small island states that have acquired full independence. Among them, the existence of at least six states, representing about one million people, would be directly at risk in the case of a temperature rise of 4 ◦ C+: Bahamas, Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu. These island states are all of very low elevation, with a highest point situated below 100 m above sea level. 5 Though adaptation strategies in low-lying island states are usually limited and costly, they are not necessarily doomed to fail and one should not jump too quickly to describing islanders as stateless citizens in the making. Indeed, such rhetoric might just jeopardize the adaptation efforts of these countries [52]. In the event of a 4 ◦ C+ world, the resettlement of the whole population might in some cases become the only viable option. It should be carefully planned and organized, with the interests of the migrants as paramount, at both the individual and collective levels. In particular, their political rights, citizenship and collective identity should be preserved. Some authors have pointed out that the migrants would in this case fall under the 1961 Convention for the Reduction of Statelessness, and could avail themselves of the Convention’s protection. An alternative view is that these migrants should not be considered as stateless citizens, and that these states continue to exist, even uninhabited. The continued existence of these states is a guarantee that the citizenship and political rights of their people be maintained—if they were to disappear as independent states, the irony would be that the very states that disappear into the sea because of climate change would also lose their seat at the UN table of negotiations. Furthermore, even in the case where the islands disappear, territorial waters would continue to exist and could provide an anchor for these states’ political existence. This would probably also imply reconceptualizing the notion of citizenship. 5. Conclusion As Danish physicist Niels Bohr famously put it, ‘prediction is very difficult, especially about the future’. A 4 ◦ C+ world would bring unprecedented changes to the environment, likely to affect human mobility in different ways. How human societies could respond to these changes is highly uncertain, and will depend on a 5Maldives, 2 m above sea level; Tuvalu, 5 m; Marshall Islands, 10 m; Bahamas, 63 m; Nauru, 71 m and Kiribati, 81 m. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Climate-induced population displacements 193 wide set of factors, with many of them not relating to environmental conditions. Despite the lack of explanatory theoretical models, or possibly because of it, the assessment of how a 4 ◦ C+ world would affect migration patterns remains dominated by an essentialist, deterministic perspective. This view sees climateinduced displacement conceptualized as a failure of adaptation, a humanitarian catastrophe in the making. In this paper, I have showed how and why such deterministic assumptions do not match current empirical evidence, and how policies may be out of touch with the reality of future migration movements. The relationship between environmental changes and migration is highly complex and depends upon many variables and specific contexts. It cannot be reduced to a direct causal relationship. Thus, the impacts associated with a 4 ◦ C+ warming might affect not only the magnitude of the induced population movements, but also, and above all, their very nature. Among the factors that will also influence the nature and magnitude of migration flows, policy is especially important. For now, discussions on future policy developments in this regard remain rooted in a deterministic perspective, unlikely to provide an adequate policy framework to address climate-induced displacements in a warmer world. Both migration and adaptation policies would need to evolve significantly, and move away from the security and humanitarian agendas in which they are currently framed. Climate-induced migration should be addressed not only within the framework of climate change, but also within the discussions on the global governance of migration. In many cases, migration does not have to be envisioned as a humanitarian catastrophe, but can also be a solution to environmental disruption, which would allow people to relocate into safer areas and to cope better with climate change impacts. The author is grateful to the three anonymous reviewers, whose comments have greatly helped him improve this paper. References 1 Global Humanitarian Forum. 2009 The anatomy of a silent crisis. Geneva, Switzerland: Global Humanitarian Forum. 2 Christian Aid. 2007 Human tide: the real migration crisis. London, UK: Christian Aid. 3 Byravan, S. & Rajan, S. C. 2006 Providing new homes for climate change exiles. Clim. Policy 6, 247–252. (doi:10.3763/cpol.2006.0615) 4 Myers, N. 2002 Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 357, 609–613. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2001.0953) 5 Brown, O. 2008 Migration and climate change. IOM Migration Research Series, No. 31. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration. 6 Black, R. 2001 Environmental refugees: myth or reality? New Issues in Refugee Research, Working Paper No. 34. Geneva, Switzerland: UNHCR. 7 Castles, S. 2002 Environmental change and forced migration: making sense of the debate. New Issues in Refugee Research, Working Paper No. 70. Geneva, Switzerland: UNHCR. 8 Adger, W. N. 1999 Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Dev. 27, 249–270. (doi:10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00136-3) 9 Mortreux, C. & Barnett, J. 2008 Climate change, migration and adaptation in Funafuti, Tuvalu. Glob. Environ. Change 19, 105–112. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.09.006) 10 McLeman, R. & Smit, B. 2006 Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Clim. Change 76, 31–53. (doi:10.1007/s10584-005-9000-7) 11 Piguet, E. 2008 Climate change and forced migration. New Issues in Refugee Research, Research Paper No. 153. Geneva, Switzerland: UNHCR. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Page 1 and 2:
ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
Page 3 and 4:
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
Page 5 and 6:
Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
Page 7 and 8:
Four degrees and beyond: the potent
Page 9 and 10:
Preface 5 commitments might give us
Page 11 and 12:
Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 13 and 14:
8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
Page 15 and 16:
10 M. New et al. supports the messa
Page 17 and 18:
12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
Page 19 and 20:
14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
Page 21 and 22:
16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
Page 23 and 24:
18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
Page 25 and 26:
Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
Page 27 and 28:
Beyond dangerous climate change 21
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
(i) Energy and industrial process e
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
Page 41 and 42:
Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
Page 53 and 54:
46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
Page 55 and 56:
48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
Page 57 and 58:
50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
Page 59 and 60:
52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
Page 61 and 62:
54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
Page 63 and 64:
56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
Page 65 and 66:
58 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. We can
Page 67 and 68:
60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
Page 69 and 70:
62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
Page 71 and 72:
64 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. 4. Conc
Page 73 and 74:
66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
Page 79 and 80:
Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
temperature (relative to 1861-1890
Page 89 and 90:
°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Regional temperature and precipitat
Page 95 and 96:
86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
Page 97 and 98:
88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
Page 99 and 100:
90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90°
Page 101 and 102:
92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
Page 103 and 104:
94 M. G. Sanderson et al. South Ame
Page 105 and 106:
96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
Page 107 and 108:
98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
Page 113 and 114:
(ii) Water stress index Water avail
Page 115 and 116:
(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
(a) number of models, black line nu
Page 121 and 122:
change in run-off (%) change in run
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Agriculture and food systems in sub
Page 129 and 130:
118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
Page 131 and 132:
120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
Page 133 and 134:
122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
Page 135 and 136:
124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
Page 137 and 138:
126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
Page 139 and 140:
128 P. K. Thornton et al. — The r
Page 141 and 142:
130 P. K. Thornton et al. keepers i
Page 143 and 144:
132 P. K. Thornton et al. 3 Frayne,
Page 145 and 146:
134 P. K. Thornton et al. 41 Erikse
Page 147 and 148:
136 P. K. Thornton et al. 83 Challi
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Humid tropical forests on a warmer
Page 153 and 154:
(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
Page 155 and 156: Humid tropical forests on a warmer
Page 161 and 162: 0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
Page 165 and 166: 0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
Page 173 and 174: Sea-level rise and its possible imp
Page 175 and 176: 162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
Page 177 and 178: 164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
Page 179 and 180: 166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
Page 181 and 182: 168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
Page 183 and 184: 170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
Page 185 and 186: 172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
Page 187 and 188: 174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
Page 189 and 190: 176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
Page 191 and 192: 178 R. J. Nicholls et al. to climat
Page 193 and 194: 180 R. J. Nicholls et al. 43 Pardae
Page 195 and 196: Climate-induced population displace
Page 205: Climate-induced population displace
Page 211 and 212: Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 213 and 214: 198 M. Stafford Smith et al. the di
Page 215 and 216: 200 M. Stafford Smith et al. greate
Page 217 and 218: 202 M. Stafford Smith et al. Table
Page 219 and 220: 204 M. Stafford Smith et al. (c) Go
Page 221 and 222: 206 M. Stafford Smith et al. mean g
Page 223 and 224: 208 M. Stafford Smith et al. These
Page 225 and 226: 210 M. Stafford Smith et al. consid
Page 227 and 228: 212 M. Stafford Smith et al. — De
Page 229 and 230: 214 M. Stafford Smith et al. 12 Lem
Page 231 and 232: 216 M. Stafford Smith et al. 51 Ste
Page 233 and 234: REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
Page 235 and 236: Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
Page 239 and 240: spread in mosquitoborne disease may
Page 241 and 242: [89,94,95] further acidification by
Page 257 and 258:
Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
Page 259:
Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
show all

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?