Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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Selection criteria The criteria for selection are scientific excellence, originality and interest across disciplines within the physical sciences and engineering. The Editors are responsible for all editorial decisions and they make these decisions based on the reports received from the referees and/or Editorial Board members. Many more good proposals and articles are submitted to us than we have space to print, and we give preference to those that are of broad interest and of high scientific quality. Publishing format Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A articles are published regularly online and in print twice a month. Along with all Royal Society journals, we are committed to archiving and providing perpetual access. The journal also offers the facility for including Electronic Supplementary Material (ESM) to papers. Contents of the ESM might include details of methods, derivations of equations, large tables of data and computer programs. However, the printed version must The Royal Society, the national academy of science of the UK and the Commonwealth, is at the cutting edge of scientific progress. We support many top young scientists, engineers and technologists, influence science policy, debate scientific issues with the public and much more. We are an independent, charitable body and derive our authoritative status from over 1400 Fellows and Foreign Members. Our mission: to expand knowledge and further the role of science and engineering in making the world a better place. The Royal Society’s strategic priorities are to: • • • • • invest in future scientific leaders and in innovation, influence policymaking with the best scientific advice, invigorate science and mathematics education, increase access to the best science internationally, and inspire an interest in the joy, wonder and excitement of scientific discovery. GUIDANCE FOR AUTHORS include enough detail to satisfy most non-specialist readers. Supplementary data up to 10Mb is placed on the Society's website free of charge. Larger datasets must be deposited in recognised public domain databases by the author. Conditions of publication Articles must not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere. The main findings of the article should not have been reported in the mass media. Like many journals, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A employs a strict embargo policy where the reporting of a scientific article by the media is embargoed until a specific time. The Editor has final authority in all matters relating to publication. Electronic Submission details For full submission guidelines and access to all journal content please visit the Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A website at rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org. For further information on the Society’s activities, please contact the following departments on the extensions listed by dialling +44 (0)20 7839 5561, or visit the Society’s Web site (royalsociety.org). Research Support (UK grants and fellowships) Research Appointments (Fellowships): 2542 Research Grants: 2223 International travel Grants: 2555 Newton International Fellowships: 2559 Science Policy Centre General enquiries: 2550 Science Communication General enquiries: 2573 Library and Information Services Library/archive enquiries: 2606 Cover image: Lake Hume, Victoria, Australia (2007) at the height of the extended drought affecting southeast Australia in the first decade of the 21st Century. Image courtesy of Tim Keegan.
Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Preface Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications 4 M. New Introduction Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications 6 M. New, D. Liverman, H. Schroder & K. Anderson Articles Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world 20 K. Anderson & A. Bows Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy 45 N. H. A. Bowerman, D. J. Frame, C. Huntingford, J. A. Lowe & M. R. Allen When could global warming reach 4°C? 67 R. A. Betts, M. Collins, D. L. Hemming, C. D. Jones, J. A. Lowe & M. G. Sanderson Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (��4°C) global warming 85 M. G. Sanderson, D. L. Hemming & R. A. Betts Water availability in ��2°C and ��4°C worlds 99 F. Fung, A. Lopez & M. New Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C�� world 117 P. K. Thornton, P. G. Jones, P. J. Ericksen & A. J. Challinor Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet 137 P. Zelazowski, Y. Malhi, C. Huntingford, S. Sitch & J. B. Fisher Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century 161 R. J. Nicholls, N. Marinova, J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, P. Vellinga, D. de Gusmão, J. Hinkel & R. S. J. Tol Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C�� world 182 F. Gemenne Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world 196 M. Stafford Smith, L. Horrocks, A. Harvey & C. Hamilton The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change 217 R. Warren Founded in 1660, the Royal Society is the independent scientific academy of the UK, dedicated to promoting excellence in science Registered Charity No 207043 13 January 2011 volume 369 · number 1934 · pages 1–241 Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications Papers of a Theme Issue compiled and edited by Mark G. New, Diana M. Liverman, Richard A. Betts, Kevin L. Anderson And Chris C. West rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org Published in Great Britain by the Royal Society, 6–9 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AG Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A | vol. 369 no. 1934 pp. 1–241 | 13 Jan 2011 Four degrees and beyond
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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