Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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David Garner, Editor School of Chemistry, University of Nottingham Russel Caflisch Department of Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles Giu-Qiang Chen Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford Peter Coveney Centre for Computational Science, University College London Walter Craig Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University John Dainton Cockcroft Institute For Accelerator Science and Technology Daniel Feltham Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling, University College London Ben Feringa Stratingh Institute for Chemistry, University of Groningen Nigel Goldenfeld Department of Physics, University of Illinois Celso Grebogi Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, University of Aberdeen Godfrey Gumbs Department of Physics, Hunter College Steven Howdle School of Chemistry, University of Nottingham Giles Hunt Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bath Bruce Joyce Department of Physics, Imperial College, London Holger Kantz Max Plank Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems Christopher Kilburn Department of Earth Sciences, University College London Jürgen Kurths Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam Marta Kwiatkowska Computing Laboratory, University of Oxford Frank Larkins University of Melbourne Publishing Editor: Suzanne Abbott (tel: +44 (0)20 7451 2214; fax: +44 (0)20 7976 1837; suzanne.abbott@royalsociety.org). 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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 1–2 Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications PAPERS OF A T HEME I SSUE COMPILED AND EDITED BY MARK G. NEW, DIANA M. LIVERMAN, RICHARD A. BETTS, KEVIN L. ANDERSON AND CHRIS C. WEST CONTENTS Editorial D. GARNER Editorial 3 Preface M. NEW Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications 4 Introduction M. NEW, D.LIVERMAN, H.SCHRODER AND K. ANDERSON Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications 6 Articles K. ANDERSON AND A. BOWS Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world 20 N. H. A. BOWERMAN, D.J.FRAME, C.HUNTINGFORD, J.A.LOWE AND M. R. ALLEN Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy 45 R. A. BETTS, M.COLLINS, D.L.HEMMING, C.D.JONES, J.A.LOWE AND M. G. SANDERSON When could global warming reach 4 ◦ C? 67 M. G. SANDERSON, D.L.HEMMING AND R. A. BETTS Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4 ◦ C) global warming 85 1 © 2011 The Royal Society
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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Agriculture and food systems in sub
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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