Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

Other observers believe that peak oil might not be here just yet, but is right around the
corner.
● The president of the international Association for the Study of Peak Oil and
Gas, Prof. Kjell Aleklett of the University of Uppsala in Sweden, stated that
“oil production will probably peak between 2011 and 2012…. Perhaps if
demand grows more moderately than expected, the peak might be delayed
until 2018 or so.” 2
● Speaking at his association’s 2009 annual convention, Eric Streitberg,
chairman of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration
Association, stated that “peak oil is just three years away.” 3
● Charlie Maxwell, energy expert from Barron’s magazine, believes that,
because of the current recession, peak oil has been postponed by a couple of
years, from 2013 to 2015. 4
2 Tom Nicholls, “The Peak is Nigh” [interview with Kjell Aleklett], Petroleum Economist, April 2008, 40,
http://www.fysast.uu.se/ges/files/April%202008%20Issue%20‐%20The%20peak%20is%20nigh.pdf.
3 Andrew Collins and Andrew Curtin, “Peak Oil, ETS and Jobs on the Agenda at APPEA 09 Oil and Gas
Conference,” February 6, 2009, http://www.abc.net.au/rural/resource/stories/s2587478.htm
4 When recently asked what had surprised him most about the “oil roller coaster we’ve been on,” Maxwell
replied:
I would have to say that what struck me most, as a surprise, is the virulence in the
downtrend in the world economy. That’s a negative for the peak oil story, but only a
temporary negative. By crushing demand, we are in effect gaining two more years, maybe
three, in which we in the consuming world have added to our time before the peak, and
could take good advantage of, since the peak is right upon us – I have it still at 2015 for all
liquids…. A lot of people had said that the year 2015 is too far out for the peak. But I built a
big margin in there because I thought we might have two recessions. I didn’t dream that we
would have one really big one. So I’ve got 2015 out there. But if you said to me last July,
when do you really believe the peak is going to come, I would have said 2013. I started years
earlier by estimating 2015 and I happily held to that view as I saw the recession begin to
develop because I could see that we would probably push it off a little bit. For your
purposes, I’ve got 2008 for the peak of non‐OPEC – not really a peak, it’s a plateau, but we’re
falling off it now. And then 2011 for the peak of the top 50 listed companies, the ones that
dominate the stock market, so the stock market investors will say the oil industry has
peaked because their stocks have peaked. And then I’ve got 2012 for the peak of black crude
oil and the 2015 for the all‐liquids peak, which I take to be ultimate peak oil. And that would
include gas‐to‐liquids, coal‐to‐liquids, NGL’s [natural gas liquids]. And it would include both
synthetic and natural crudes. Steve Andrews, “Interview with Charlie Maxwell (Part 1 of 2),”
The Energy Bulletin, June 22, 2009 (http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49303).
Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force
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