Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

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Although the prevailing sense among governments and certainly among the general public is that there is “plenty” of coal left in the world, the Energy Watch Group warns that global production could peak as early as 2020‐2025. The EWG is particularly concerned about the supply situation in China, where consumption has been rising especially rapidly over the last decade. It believes that “China will reach maximum production within the next 5‐15 years, probably around 2015…. The steep rise in production of the past few years must be followed by a steep decline after 2020.” 267 It also believes that “the strongly rising production of China will have a substantial influence on the peak of world coal production. Once China cannot increase its production any more global coal production will peak.” 268 Startling as the conclusion that global coal production will peak by 2020‐2025, even more startling is the Energy Watch Group’s conclusion that U.S. coal production may already have peaked: “Though total production volumes are still increasing due to the expanding production of subbituminous coal in Wyoming, coal production in terms of energy had already peaked in 1998 at 598 Mtoe [million tons of oil equivalent] compared to 576 Mtoe in 2005.” 269 On the other hand, the EWG notes that the U.S. still retains, if the official figures are to be believed, substantial remaining coal reserves in several other states. Its argument that “it is not probable that the huge reserves in Montana, Illinois, Western 267 Energy Watch Group, Coal, 27. 268 Ibid., 15. 269 Loc cit. The peak of world oil production in 2010 will impact the world economy profoundly. Without a coherent effort to proactively reduce energy consumption further while developing renewable sources, the decline of coal toward the middle of the century will deliver a coup de grace to industrial civilization, making the maintenance of the electrical grid impossible. We will then have come to the end of the road, having used nature’s endowment of cheap, energy‐ dense fuels without having built a bridge to the future. What follows is the final Blackout.” Source: Heinberg, Blackout, p. 167. Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force 235
Kentucky and Ohio will be converted into production” 270 is not entirely convincing. Should global coal production peak early and leave the world hungry for hydrocarbons, it seems unlikely that these reserves would remain untapped. Indiana currently exports only a small amount of coal to power plants in neighboring states, it is possible to imagine a scenario in which Indiana participates in an export boom and significantly increases its production. Should that happen, there would be an increase in the size of the production divisor in the state’s R/P ratio, reducing the “number of years” that the state’s coal would last. This would especially be the case if demand for coal‐ generated electricity increases significantly because peak oil causes the world to turn to electric vehicles or coal‐to‐liquids (CTL) production. On the other hand, the increase in demand could be moderated by rapid penetration of wind‐ or solar‐generated electricity into the marketplace – or, possibly even more likely, as a result of the widespread substitution of natural gas for coal (see below). A careful recent study of when world coal production will peak is an article by S.H. Mohr and G.M. Evans, “Forecasting Coal Production Until 2100,” accepted for publication in the journal Fuel. According to Mohr and Evans, depending on the actual amount of ultimately recoverable coal in the world, production could “peak between 2010 and 2048 on a mass basis and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The Best Guess scenario assumed a URR [ultimately recoverable resource] of 1144 Gt and peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis.” 271 Given a “best guess” that world coal production will peak in 2026 “on an energy basis,” the Task Force feels that it would be prudent to assume that the peak will occur by 2030. 270 Ibid., 38. 271 S.H. Mohr and G.M. Evans, “Forecasting Coal Production Until 2100,” http://www.theoildrum/com/node/5256. Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force 236
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Redefining Prosperity: Energy Desce
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This report is dedicated to Colin J
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Preface Our society is reaching a t
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Oil infuses just
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Transportation. Of all sectors, tra
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Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil
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The “Hubbert Curve.” Decades ag
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Other observers believe that peak o
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solutions 20 years before the peak
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What’s more, it is highly unlikel
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Biofuels Some believe that it will
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THE BLOOMINGTON PEAK OIL TASK FORCE
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ENDORSEMENT OF THE OIL DEPLETION PR
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NEXT STEPS This Report outlines a n
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THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT The enormous e
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Inflation and Volatility It will be
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Daily changes in the spot price of
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Daly writes: That was when I realiz
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instead of the old notion that “b
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Fuel Rationing As we collectively s
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES Follo
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• Local government should collabo
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transit and pedestrian and biking f
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On the other hand, there is probabl
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• all City traffic signals have b
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THIRSTY WATER: THE WATER SUPPLY Sin
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Water Treatment Treatment of water
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES A com
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2. Advocate a tiered pricing system
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4. Offer other efficiency incentive
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MEDIUMTERM (5‐15 years) 1. Expl
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WASTE DISPOSAL: THE DETRITUS OF CON
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89,582 tons of garbage in 2007. 84
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES SHORT
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MEDIUMTERM STRATEGIES (515 year
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Re‐establishing a local landfill
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2. Transition all backup generato
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POLICE, FIRE & OTHER EMERGENCY SERV
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3. There is a potential for increas
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MEDIUMTERM (515 years) 1. The P
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OTHER EMERGENCY SERVICES Non‐rout
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FLEET & STREET: CARBON WEBS & ASPHA
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In an effort to save money, reduce
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esidents who work from home, howeve
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MAINTAINING CITY STREETS Everything
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MEDIUM TERM (515 Years) 1. Reduce
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As summarized by Pat Murphy in Plan
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just to cover the cost of vehicle m
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION: PA
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About the Activity Nodes Project In
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MAP B: Population Density Report of
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Natural Neighborhoods One key step
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VULNERABILITIES 1. When it comes to
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3. Include plans for peak oil in th
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MEDIUMTERM (515 years) 1. Trans
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Both the City of Bloomington and Mo
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5. Build in physical separation buf
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION: VM
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Oil & Equity: The Impact of Fuel Co
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Fuel as Percentage of Income 100.00
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The Distance Factor The greater the
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Pedestrian Friendliness Just how
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MAP E: WalkScore Analysis of 55 Nat
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THE CURRENT SITUATION: PUBLIC TRANS
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Hoosier Bus Hoosier Bus is Indiana
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BT owns 42 conventional diesel buse
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MAP F: Walkability of Bloomington T
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5. Intercity rail is not available.
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES In th
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2. Develop a community cooperative
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The City should establish or encour
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6. Update the LongRange Transport
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Make bike riding on major arterials
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11. Seek greater public investment
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13. Fully unify the BT and campus b
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15. Establish public or private lon
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LONGTERM (1530 years) 1. Shrink
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION Hou
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Number of People per Square Foot Wh
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Local Incentives The community has
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VULNERABILITIES 1. Potential for po
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5. Restrictive covenants on use of
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2. The community should explore the
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Granny flats In Bloomington, there
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7. Actively work to grow building e
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10. Educate and motivate citizens t
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SUSTENANCE: FOOD, WATER, WASTE & HE
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Indeed, it is estimated that the U.
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Local Food Production Efforts to pr
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The Current U.S. Diet Americans eat
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Regional Land and Population The pr
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Can Bloomington Feed Itself? Feedin
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population maintained health, while
Page 198 and 199: fertility inputs and yields of surp
Page 200 and 201: MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES: PLAN
Page 202 and 203: SHORTTERM STRATEGIES (15 Years)
Page 204 and 205: 10. Train and deploy 300 new urban
Page 206 and 207: 12. The City and other stakeholders
Page 208 and 209: 23. Reserve open land for agricultu
Page 210 and 211: 11. Establish a credible local fina
Page 212 and 213: Households can contribute significa
Page 214 and 215: 4. Collect rainwater In addition to
Page 216 and 217: and paper. Sources include househol
Page 218 and 219: HEALTH CARE The implications of pea
Page 220 and 221: MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES: RE
Page 222 and 223: The Fourth Layer: Professional Care
Page 224 and 225: Opportunities for Citizen Action: W
Page 226 and 227: • Use power strips for your home
Page 228 and 229: State and utility residential renew
Page 230 and 231: CONCLUSION The peaking of productio
Page 232 and 233: GILBERT, Richard, and Anthony Perl.
Page 234 and 235: PIMENTEL, David, ed. Biofuels, Sola
Page 236 and 237: ENERGY WATCH GROUP. “Coal: Resour
Page 238 and 239: APPENDICES
Page 240 and 241: argued by Brown to dramatically dec
Page 242 and 243: In general, the trend has been for
Page 244 and 245: Unfortunately, stated coal R/P rati
Page 246 and 247: during World War I, then falling as
Page 250 and 251: The following projection of future
Page 252 and 253: asserted, “Consequently, our pres
Page 254 and 255: The following graph from the Associ
Page 256 and 257: APPENDIX IV Vehicle Ownership per P
Page 258: Stephanie Kimball is a former Profe
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Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

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