Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

What’s more, it is highly unlikely that ANWR could produce anywhere near the amount of
oil necessary to meet current U.S. demand. According to a U.S. Geological Survey estimate,
the amount of technically‐recoverable oil in ANWR is somewhere between 5.7 and 16
billion barrels. 12 Those sound like huge numbers, but they pale in comparison to
consumption rates. The U.S. has been using oil at the rate of approximately 7 billion
barrels per year. Therefore, if ANWR actually does contain as much as 16 billion barrels of
technically recoverable oil, the U.S. would go through every drop of it in a little over two
It is interesting to note that the purpose of the first oil well in
Pennsylvania was to find a replacement for whale oil for indoor lighting.
Whale oil burned with a clean, bright flame, but by 1846, the U.S. whaling
fleet had reached “peak whales” and was going to the ends of the earth in
search of its prey. Above is a cartoon from Vanity Fair, published in 1861
showing happy whales celebrating the discovery of oil wells in
Pennsylvania. Source: Vanity Fair, April 20, 1861, 186.
Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force
years if it had to rely on that
source alone. 13
By the time ANWR oil came
into production, it is likely
that world production will
already be in steep decline.
The additional production
from ANWR would not be
sufficient to increase world
petroleum output. It would
simply reduce the rate of
decline slightly for a few
years until ANWR, too,
becomes depleted.
12 The probability that it is at least 5.7 billion barrels is 95%. The probability that it could be as high as 16
billion barrels is only 5%. The mean estimate is 10.4 billion barrels.
13 U.S. Geological Survey, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1002 Area, Petroleum Assessment, 1998, Including
Economic Analysis (Fact Sheet 0028‐01: Online Report), http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs‐0028‐01/fs‐0028‐01.htm
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