Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

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Preface Our society is reaching a turning point. Very soon, perhaps already, a key energy and material resource will reach a historic transition. This point, known as “peak oil,” will usher in a new age – of declining capacity to supply society with an energy source unmatched in energy density, net energy return, scale, and ease of use. Peak production has occurred before in fields, regions and nations – the United States offering the most famous example – but now we stand poised to peak globally. Because oil is a finite, non‐renewable resource, a worldwide decline in production is inevitable. Peak oil will necessitate many changes in society. It is difficult to imagine how we can continue a transportation‐intensive culture without this key resource. Similarly, most of industrial agriculture relies on fossil fuel inputs. Indeed, oil is a feedstock of a truly massive array of products. And economic growth, entailing ever‐greater throughput of materials and increasing consumption, has depended on expanding energy availability. The consequences of oil production decline are therefore serious. It may be difficult to fully grasp and acknowledge the implications. Can the future be so different than today? Ten years ago, few would have predicted the collapse of a paramount blue chip institution such as General Motors. And few astute political commentators would have predicted the election of an African American President of the United States. The collapse of the former Soviet Union and the rise of global communications via the internet are also testaments to rapid change in a very short time. The changes implied by peak oil are immense, and thus will require preparation and planning commensurate with the size of the problem. The transition to a post‐peak oil world will likely entail the shortening of commercial and trade supply lines and the relocalization of essential community needs, such as food production. Products that require little oil in their composition and manufacturing will be favored. We will have to develop and employ new technologies that are both environmentally benign and based on renewable resources and energy. There will also be a need for skills that have been neglected in the age of cheap energy, and knowledge thought to be outdated and obsolete. Prosperity may take on new meaning – from a simple metric of accumulated money to a broader meaning of community well being, security, and commonwealth. On the most basic level, peak oil, climate change, and a host of other environmental crises require that we recognize and live within the limits of our biosphere. This is the challenge and opportunity that we have before us today. We hope that this report contributes to a prosperous and resilient future. Dave Rollo Chair, Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force i
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you to the Mayor and City Council for their vision in establishing this Task Force. Many thanks to Russ Goodman, GIS Specialist for the City of Bloomington, for his tireless and patient help in rendering maps, attending meetings, and offering feedback. Thanks to the Task Force’s excellent SPEA Fellows: Sean Ziegler (May 2008 ‐ October 2008) and Sarah Germann (October 2008‐May 2009) for their thorough note taking and research. Thanks also to the following City staff for their insight and help in collecting data: Lisa Abbott, Danise Alano, Bobby Chestnut, Barry Collins, Chief Diekhoff, Leigh Hayes, Raymond Hess, Susie Johnson, Chief Kerr, John Langley, Lisa Lazell, Danny Lopez, Tom Micuda, Patrick Murphy, Mick Renneisen, Scott Robinson, Dan Sherman, Amy Silkworth, Michael Simmons, Shelby Walker, Adam Wason, Chuck Winkle & Alisa Wood. Thanks to Lew May, General Manager of Bloomington Transit Corporation and to Terry Usrey of the Southern Indiana Renewable Energy Network (SIREN). Thank you to the fantastic CATS crew for their expert coverage of Task Force meetings. Throughout the Task Force’s life, a number of students have provided assistance. Thanks to: Syed Mohiuddin for his analysis of local currency. Thanks also to: Jillian Carter, Michael Falls, Stephen Lucas, Ian Oehler and Emilee Schwartz. Further thanks to Nate Hagens of the Gund Institute for teleconferencing with the Task Force about natural gas production. Thanks to Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow‐in‐ Residence at the Post‐Carbon Institute and Pat Murphy and Megan Quinn of Community Solutions for giving presentations on peak oil to the Bloomington Community. Each Task Force member assumed responsibility for drafting a section of the report. • The Economic Context (Gary Charbonneau) • Municipal Services (Dave Rollo & Stacy Jane Rhoads) • Land Use (Gregory Travis) • Transportation (Christine Glaser) • Housing (Stephanie Kimball) • Sustenance (Peter Bane) • Appendix on decline rate (Dave Rollo) • Appendices on coal and natural gas (Gary Charbonneau) Editors: Charbonneau, Fuqua, and Rhoads. The findings and recommendations herein are solely those of the Task Force and do not necessarily reflect those of any other individual, department, institution, or agency. Any errors are those of the Task Force. Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force ii
Page 2 and 3: Redefining Prosperity: Energy Desce
Page 4 and 5: This report is dedicated to Colin J
Page 8 and 9: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Oil infuses just
Page 10 and 11: Transportation. Of all sectors, tra
Page 12 and 13: Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil
Page 14 and 15: The “Hubbert Curve.” Decades ag
Page 16 and 17: Other observers believe that peak o
Page 18 and 19: solutions 20 years before the peak
Page 20 and 21: What’s more, it is highly unlikel
Page 22 and 23: Biofuels Some believe that it will
Page 24 and 25: THE BLOOMINGTON PEAK OIL TASK FORCE
Page 26 and 27: ENDORSEMENT OF THE OIL DEPLETION PR
Page 28 and 29: NEXT STEPS This Report outlines a n
Page 30 and 31: THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT The enormous e
Page 32 and 33: Inflation and Volatility It will be
Page 34 and 35: Daily changes in the spot price of
Page 36 and 37: Daly writes: That was when I realiz
Page 38 and 39: instead of the old notion that “b
Page 40 and 41: Fuel Rationing As we collectively s
Page 42 and 43: MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES Follo
Page 44 and 45: • Local government should collabo
Page 46 and 47: transit and pedestrian and biking f
Page 48 and 49: On the other hand, there is probabl
Page 50 and 51: • all City traffic signals have b
Page 52 and 53: THIRSTY WATER: THE WATER SUPPLY Sin
Page 54 and 55: Water Treatment Treatment of water
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES A com
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2. Advocate a tiered pricing system
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4. Offer other efficiency incentive
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MEDIUMTERM (5‐15 years) 1. Expl
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WASTE DISPOSAL: THE DETRITUS OF CON
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89,582 tons of garbage in 2007. 84
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES SHORT
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MEDIUMTERM STRATEGIES (515 year
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Re‐establishing a local landfill
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2. Transition all backup generato
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POLICE, FIRE & OTHER EMERGENCY SERV
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3. There is a potential for increas
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MEDIUMTERM (515 years) 1. The P
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OTHER EMERGENCY SERVICES Non‐rout
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FLEET & STREET: CARBON WEBS & ASPHA
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In an effort to save money, reduce
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esidents who work from home, howeve
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MAINTAINING CITY STREETS Everything
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MEDIUM TERM (515 Years) 1. Reduce
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As summarized by Pat Murphy in Plan
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Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil
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just to cover the cost of vehicle m
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION: PA
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About the Activity Nodes Project In
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MAP B: Population Density Report of
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Natural Neighborhoods One key step
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VULNERABILITIES 1. When it comes to
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3. Include plans for peak oil in th
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MEDIUMTERM (515 years) 1. Trans
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Both the City of Bloomington and Mo
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5. Build in physical separation buf
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION: VM
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Oil & Equity: The Impact of Fuel Co
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Fuel as Percentage of Income 100.00
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The Distance Factor The greater the
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Pedestrian Friendliness Just how
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MAP E: WalkScore Analysis of 55 Nat
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THE CURRENT SITUATION: PUBLIC TRANS
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Hoosier Bus Hoosier Bus is Indiana
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BT owns 42 conventional diesel buse
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MAP F: Walkability of Bloomington T
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5. Intercity rail is not available.
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES In th
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2. Develop a community cooperative
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The City should establish or encour
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6. Update the LongRange Transport
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Make bike riding on major arterials
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11. Seek greater public investment
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13. Fully unify the BT and campus b
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15. Establish public or private lon
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LONGTERM (1530 years) 1. Shrink
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION Hou
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Number of People per Square Foot Wh
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Local Incentives The community has
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VULNERABILITIES 1. Potential for po
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5. Restrictive covenants on use of
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2. The community should explore the
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Granny flats In Bloomington, there
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7. Actively work to grow building e
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10. Educate and motivate citizens t
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SUSTENANCE: FOOD, WATER, WASTE & HE
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Indeed, it is estimated that the U.
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Local Food Production Efforts to pr
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The Current U.S. Diet Americans eat
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Regional Land and Population The pr
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Can Bloomington Feed Itself? Feedin
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population maintained health, while
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fertility inputs and yields of surp
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES: PLAN
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SHORTTERM STRATEGIES (15 Years)
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10. Train and deploy 300 new urban
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12. The City and other stakeholders
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23. Reserve open land for agricultu
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11. Establish a credible local fina
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Households can contribute significa
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4. Collect rainwater In addition to
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and paper. Sources include househol
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HEALTH CARE The implications of pea
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES: RE
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The Fourth Layer: Professional Care
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Opportunities for Citizen Action: W
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• Use power strips for your home
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State and utility residential renew
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CONCLUSION The peaking of productio
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GILBERT, Richard, and Anthony Perl.
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PIMENTEL, David, ed. Biofuels, Sola
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ENERGY WATCH GROUP. “Coal: Resour
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APPENDICES
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argued by Brown to dramatically dec
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In general, the trend has been for
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Unfortunately, stated coal R/P rati
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during World War I, then falling as
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Although the prevailing sense among
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The following projection of future
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asserted, “Consequently, our pres
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The following graph from the Associ
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APPENDIX IV Vehicle Ownership per P
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Stephanie Kimball is a former Profe
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Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

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