Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

argued by Brown to dramatically decrease oil supply to importing consumers and to
do so at a rate above the observed geologic rate of decline.
5. Geopolitical conflict. Some 17 million barrels per day are shipped out of a very
narrow waterway, the Gulf of Hormuz, in the Middle East. Obstruction of this key
point of access, in the event of conflict in the region, would have immediate and
severe effects on oil importing countries. This is just one of many possible global
flashpoints that may affect future oil supply.
6. The U.S. dollar. Denominating oil in dollars brings a clear advantage to the U.S., as
does the status of the dollar as the world reserve currency. It is far from certain that
this arrangement will continue, as a number of countries have spoken openly of
diversifying their exchange portfolio to include the euro, the yuan and the yen. If
these proposed arrangements come to pass, the value of the dollar may plunge, and
imported oil may become unaffordable for many U.S. citizens.
7. Heavy oil, oil shales, tar sands, and biofuels. These resources offer some limited
supply but are constrained either energetically or by other resource inputs (e.g.
water, land to grow crops). They will offer only a modest supply of liquid fuels in
the future.
8. The discovery of new, large fields. Although fewer and far between, the possibility
remains that large fields of tens of billions of barrels may yet be discovered. Some
finds of late, such as Tupi off the coast of Brazil in development by Petrobras, or
deep water Gulf of Mexico (e.g., the Tiber Field developed by British Petroleum).
While these fields may yield billions of barrels of oil, one needs to place it within the
context of current world use (a billion barrels are consumed every 11 days). It is
also observed that these latest finds are incredibly expensive, and stretch current
technology to the limit (Tiber, for instance, requires drilling in deepwater, and at a
total depth of 35,000 ft.). Lastly, because field development may take many years,
oil discovered today may not be available for some time.
Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force 227