Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

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Inflation and Volatility It will be difficult to predict the effect of peak oil on prices. As Rubin suggests, the natural effect of petroleum shortages would be to cause inflation. The primary cause of inflation in such an environment would be an increase in the price of oil. And, as discussed in the Transportation chapter, a significant increase in the cost of fuel will stress the budgets of households reliant on personal vehicles and will have an especially regressive effect on the community’s lowest wage earners. Similarly, the cost of products will likely rise for at least two reasons. First, many products (plastics, aspirin and clothing, to name a few) are reliant on oil as a key input. Second, as Bloomington imports most of the products it consumes, as the cost of transporting goods to the community increases, so too will product prices escalate. Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force Source: Clayton Guiltner, blog entry, Apr. 22, 2008 A period of inflation, accompanied by slow or negative economic growth, would represent a return to the so‐called “stagflation” of the 1970s and early 1980s. There were two major periods of inflation during this time. The first, during 1973‐74, arose from the “first oil shock” caused by the OPEC oil embargo that resulted from the 1973 Arab‐Israeli War. It saw the rate of inflation increase from an annual rate of 3.63 percent in January 1973 to a high of 11.80 percent in January 1975. Inflation declined somewhat thereafter, falling to a low of 4.86 percent in December 1976 before beginning to rise again. It shot up in a major way following the “second oil shock” resulting from political events in Iran in 1978‐79. In November 1978, Iranian oil workers reduced output from 6 million barrels per day to 1.5 barrels per day. The inflation rate in the United States rose from 8.89 percent in November 1978 to 14.76 percent in March 1980. It remained as high as 10.14 percent in October 1981. Meanwhile, GDP actually declined in 1973 and 1974, and again in 1982. 20
However, inflation is just one part of the picture. As prices increase, demand decreases, triggering lower prices. Lower prices tend to encourage greater demand. Wild oscillations in demand could result in wild oscillations in gas prices. The fallout of the summer of 2008 is testament to this volatility: On July 11, 2008, the price of oil hit $147.29/barrel. Faced with record prices at the gasoline pump, motorists rapidly began to alter their behavior, cutting back on discretionary driving or resorting to public transportation. New gas guzzlers sat forlornly on auto dealers’ lots. Further figuring into demand destruction was the mortgage crisis that hit just a few weeks after the record oil price peak, triggering a global economic meltdown. Oil took a nosedive down to about $33/barrel in December 2008. Indeed, oil demand dropped by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day since July 2008. 26 Six months after the December low, oil was once again inching its way above $70/barrel. In the teeth of the worst postwar recession on record, this doubling of oil prices in only six months is truly remarkable. The increasing likelihood of ever‐more volatile oil prices is widely recognized. The United States Government Accounting Office (GAO) reports that energy markets will become increasingly volatile, making supply disruptions more likely. 27 26 Jad Mouawad, “One Year After Oil’s Price Peak: Volatility,” New York Times, July 10, 2009, Green Inc. http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/10/one‐year‐after‐oils‐price‐peak‐ volatility/?scp=1&sq=one%20year%20after%20oil's%20price%20peak&st=cse 27 “Crude Oil: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing the Peak and Decline of Oil Production,” GAO‐07‐283, February 2007, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force 21
Page 2 and 3: Redefining Prosperity: Energy Desce
Page 4 and 5: This report is dedicated to Colin J
Page 6 and 7: Preface Our society is reaching a t
Page 8 and 9: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Oil infuses just
Page 10 and 11: Transportation. Of all sectors, tra
Page 12 and 13: Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil
Page 14 and 15: The “Hubbert Curve.” Decades ag
Page 16 and 17: Other observers believe that peak o
Page 18 and 19: solutions 20 years before the peak
Page 20 and 21: What’s more, it is highly unlikel
Page 22 and 23: Biofuels Some believe that it will
Page 24 and 25: THE BLOOMINGTON PEAK OIL TASK FORCE
Page 26 and 27: ENDORSEMENT OF THE OIL DEPLETION PR
Page 28 and 29: NEXT STEPS This Report outlines a n
Page 30 and 31: THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT The enormous e
Page 34 and 35: Daily changes in the spot price of
Page 36 and 37: Daly writes: That was when I realiz
Page 38 and 39: instead of the old notion that “b
Page 40 and 41: Fuel Rationing As we collectively s
Page 42 and 43: MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES Follo
Page 44 and 45: • Local government should collabo
Page 46 and 47: transit and pedestrian and biking f
Page 48 and 49: On the other hand, there is probabl
Page 50 and 51: • all City traffic signals have b
Page 52 and 53: THIRSTY WATER: THE WATER SUPPLY Sin
Page 54 and 55: Water Treatment Treatment of water
Page 56 and 57: MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES A com
Page 58 and 59: 2. Advocate a tiered pricing system
Page 60 and 61: 4. Offer other efficiency incentive
Page 62 and 63: MEDIUMTERM (5‐15 years) 1. Expl
Page 64 and 65: WASTE DISPOSAL: THE DETRITUS OF CON
Page 66 and 67: 89,582 tons of garbage in 2007. 84
Page 68 and 69: MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES SHORT
Page 70 and 71: MEDIUMTERM STRATEGIES (515 year
Page 72 and 73: Re‐establishing a local landfill
Page 74 and 75: 2. Transition all backup generato
Page 76 and 77: POLICE, FIRE & OTHER EMERGENCY SERV
Page 78 and 79: 3. There is a potential for increas
Page 80 and 81: MEDIUMTERM (515 years) 1. The P
Page 82 and 83:
OTHER EMERGENCY SERVICES Non‐rout
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FLEET & STREET: CARBON WEBS & ASPHA
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In an effort to save money, reduce
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES SHORT
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esidents who work from home, howeve
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MAINTAINING CITY STREETS Everything
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MEDIUM TERM (515 Years) 1. Reduce
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As summarized by Pat Murphy in Plan
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES SHORT
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Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil
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just to cover the cost of vehicle m
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION: PA
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
About the Activity Nodes Project In
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MAP B: Population Density Report of
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Natural Neighborhoods One key step
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VULNERABILITIES 1. When it comes to
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3. Include plans for peak oil in th
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MEDIUMTERM (515 years) 1. Trans
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Both the City of Bloomington and Mo
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5. Build in physical separation buf
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Page 126 and 127:
REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION: VM
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Oil & Equity: The Impact of Fuel Co
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Fuel as Percentage of Income 100.00
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The Distance Factor The greater the
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Pedestrian Friendliness Just how
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MAP E: WalkScore Analysis of 55 Nat
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THE CURRENT SITUATION: PUBLIC TRANS
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Hoosier Bus Hoosier Bus is Indiana
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BT owns 42 conventional diesel buse
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MAP F: Walkability of Bloomington T
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5. Intercity rail is not available.
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES In th
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2. Develop a community cooperative
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The City should establish or encour
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6. Update the LongRange Transport
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Make bike riding on major arterials
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11. Seek greater public investment
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13. Fully unify the BT and campus b
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15. Establish public or private lon
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LONGTERM (1530 years) 1. Shrink
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REVIEW OF THE CURRENT SITUATION Hou
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Number of People per Square Foot Wh
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Local Incentives The community has
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VULNERABILITIES 1. Potential for po
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5. Restrictive covenants on use of
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2. The community should explore the
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Granny flats In Bloomington, there
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7. Actively work to grow building e
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10. Educate and motivate citizens t
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SUSTENANCE: FOOD, WATER, WASTE & HE
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Indeed, it is estimated that the U.
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Local Food Production Efforts to pr
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The Current U.S. Diet Americans eat
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Regional Land and Population The pr
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Can Bloomington Feed Itself? Feedin
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population maintained health, while
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fertility inputs and yields of surp
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES: PLAN
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SHORTTERM STRATEGIES (15 Years)
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10. Train and deploy 300 new urban
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12. The City and other stakeholders
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23. Reserve open land for agricultu
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11. Establish a credible local fina
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Households can contribute significa
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4. Collect rainwater In addition to
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and paper. Sources include househol
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HEALTH CARE The implications of pea
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MITIGATION GOALS & STRATEGIES: RE
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The Fourth Layer: Professional Care
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Opportunities for Citizen Action: W
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• Use power strips for your home
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State and utility residential renew
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CONCLUSION The peaking of productio
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GILBERT, Richard, and Anthony Perl.
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PIMENTEL, David, ed. Biofuels, Sola
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ENERGY WATCH GROUP. “Coal: Resour
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APPENDICES
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argued by Brown to dramatically dec
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In general, the trend has been for
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Unfortunately, stated coal R/P rati
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during World War I, then falling as
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Although the prevailing sense among
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The following projection of future
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asserted, “Consequently, our pres
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The following graph from the Associ
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APPENDIX IV Vehicle Ownership per P
Page 258:
Stephanie Kimball is a former Profe
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Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

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