Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

solutions 20 years before the peak oil problem, we would have stood a very good chance of
beating the problem and could have avoided significant negative consequences for our
economy. As it turns out, we now don’t have 20 years; we don’t even have 10.” 7
The Task Force endorses this view. After close examination, the Task Force agrees that the
date of peak will turn out to be somewhere between 2008 and 2015 – most likely 2008. It
is clear that peak oil is either here or right around the corner. Now is the time to
collectively implement measures to reduce our reliance on petroleum.
RATE OF OIL DEPLETION
So what happens after production peaks? Production obviously declines thereafter. The
rate of decline is widely estimated to be about 3 percent per year. 9 The Association for the
Study of Peak Oil and Gas estimates that by 2030, production could be down to 50‐60
million barrels per day from a possible high of 90‐94 million barrels per day. 10 The rate at
which the world has been burning through oil is sobering. Although oil production began
as far back as 1859, by 2005:
97% of all the oil that had ever been produced worldwide had been
produced since 1940.
88% of the oil that had ever been produced had been produced since
1960.
57% of all the oil that had ever been produced had been produced
since 1980.
37% of all the oil that had ever been produced had been produced since
1990. 11
7 Allianz, Energy Future: A Significant Period of Discomfort, Interview with Robert Hirsch, June 2008.
http://knowledge.allianz.com/en/globalissues/safety_security/energy_security/hirsch_peak_oil_production.html
9 The Oil Depletion Protocol, http://www.oildepletionprotocol.org/. Please see Appendix I for a discussion of
factors that affect global decline rate.
10 Nicholls, loc. cit.
11 Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl, Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil (London,
Earthscan, 2008), 120.
Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force
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