Peak Oil Task Force Report - City of Bloomington - State of Indiana

Daly writes:
That was when I realized that economists have not grasped a simple fact that to scientists is
obvious: the size of the Earth as a whole is fixed. Neither the surface nor the mass of the
planet is growing or shrinking. The same is true for energy budgets: the amount absorbed
by the Earth is equal to the amount it radiates. The overall size of the system – the amount
of water, land, air, minerals and other resources present on the planet we live on – is fixed.
The most important change on earth in recent times has been the enormous growth of the
economy, which has taken over an ever greater share of the planet’s resources. In my
lifetime, world population has tripled, while the numbers of livestock, cars, houses and
refrigerators have increased by vastly more. In fact, our economy is now reaching the point
where it is outstripping Earth’s ability to sustain it. Resources are running out and waste
sinks are becoming full. The remaining natural world can no longer support the existing
economy, much less one that continues to expand. 29
Clearly, the energy budget of the Earth is fixed. For more than 200 years we have been
increasingly able to exceed that budget by drawing down non‐renewable fossil fuel
resources created by ancient sunlight tens or hundreds of millions of years ago. However,
this sort of consumption cannot go on for another 200 years.
Since 1929, U.S. GDP has grown by 3.4 percent per year. 30 Even if we replace petroleum
reliance with renewable energy, it would be a considerable challenge to sustain an
economy the size of the one we have now. Assuming that GDP increases by 3 percent per
year, the nature of exponential growth suggests that by the year 2100 the economy would
be 14 times as large as the one we have now. And if 3 percent annual growth required the
consumption of 2 percent more primary energy per year to achieve, then by 2100 our
economy would require almost 6 times as much energy as it does now. It is highly unlikely
that such a scenario is achievable.
What if a 2 percent growth rate in energy consumption is extended out to a period of a
thousand years? In that case, annual energy consumption would have to be at a level
398,264,652 times as high as it was a thousand years earlier. This is an obvious absurdity,
29 Herman Daly, Special Report: Economics Blind Spot is a Disaster for the Planet, 15 Oct. 2008,
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20026786.300‐special‐report‐economics‐blind‐spot‐is‐a‐disaster‐
for‐the‐planet.html?page=2
30 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts: 1929
Through First Quarter 2009 (July 2009).
Report of the Bloomington Peak Oil Task Force
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