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areas, the case of doctors who retire, leave or emigrate as demonstrated in the following
figure (Figure II.2.2.2).
Figure II.2.2.2: Stock of medical doctors at a given time
Scheffler et al. (2010) model can be a good start for the development of a Moroccan
simulation projecting the number of medical doctors in 2015 or later. The model is based
on the assumption that there is only one specialty which is being a medical doctors
setting aside all the specialties. The data is based on WHO Moroccan databases and the
Moroccan Ministry of Health regional health-related data. Data about economic growth,
demographics, household income and regional (urban/ rural) development are also
needed. The data used in the simulation covers the period of 1995-2009.
From Figure II.1 above, it is observed that stock of medical doctors in a given year
depends on the inflows and outflows of physicians that happen that same year such as:
Where is the stock of medical doctors at time t.
or
After determining the net of medical doctors, the projected developments in term of
demand for health care should be taking into consideration to measure its impact on
physicians’ need. The Moroccan minister of health explained that the number of medical,
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