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The general conclusions of these three studies seem to be similar, since all of them make
quite low predictions. According to the reported figures, between 70,000 and 260,000
immigrants per year would migrate to the EU-15 countries after the enlargement.
Also, the impact of accession on migratory flows of health workers is difficult to assess
with accuracy. There is no a comprehensive analysis of mobility trends during the course
of enlargement (OECD, 2008; Wiskow, 2006). The general impression is the outflows
from some of the 2004 accession states have not been as high as anticipated by policy
makers in these countries. For instance, a WHO report published in 2006, based on
country case studies noted that whilst there were some indications of increased out
migration of health professionals from Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, the number were
not as large as had been anticipated, perhaps because the surveys at the time had
overestimated (Buchan and Perfilieva, 2006). Similarly, Wiskow (2006) come up with
the same conclusions for Romania, Bulgaria Serbia and Croatia. Gerlinger and
Schmucker (2007) conclude that after the EU expansion in 2004, the immigration of
health workers increased but not as one expected. Lésniowska (2006) indicates that the
accession of Poland to the EU had a huge impact on the migration process for medical
doctors. This is most notable in UK where prior to the accession, there were 335 Polish
doctors registered compared with 1,968 by 2007. Indeed some authors argue that in some
areas of medical specialization the number of active physicians fell by almost 10 %,
already creating shortages on peripheral and poorer regions of Poland. The number of
doctors employed in Poland decreased by more than 100,000 over the period 2003-2006.
The number of medical doctors from the new Member states in destination countries such
as Austria, Belgium, France, Finland and Italy increased modestly around 2004 and 2007.
For instance, France registered a considerable increase in the numbers of Romanian
medical doctors from 174 in 2007 to 1160 in 2009. UK has been also an important
destination, attracting an increasing number of doctors from Poland, but also from
Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, or Lithuania.
Finally, reports on other countries reach the same conclusions. In Ireland, the number of
EU8 nationals employed in the health sector doubled between September 2004 and 2005
from 700 to about 1300. In Sweden, the number of authorizations granted to EU doctors
rose from 230 in 2003 to 740 in 2004. In the UK, between May 2004 and December
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