Kerala 2005 - of Planning Commission

CHAPTER 5
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
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general to send their fewer numbers of children to school,
including girl children, who otherwise would take care
of siblings and be held up at home. The availability and
spread of educational facilities in the State absorbed them
into the school system. Therefore, the fertility decline that
started around the 1960s contributed to the expansion of
school enrolment in the later years.
Fertility decline in Kerala also contributed towards
improvement in the health of children. With a reduction
in the family size, the total health cost for children in
general declines, keeping constant the cost per child.
This gives scope for the poor to access better health care
for their fewer number of children. Decline in infant
mortality rate, in turn, leads to fertility decline with
some time lag, and this constitutes a virtuous cycle of
decline in total fertility: Better health leads to reduction
in infant mortality rate, which leads to fertility decline.
There is every reason to see this virtuous cycle having its
dynamic run in Kerala. During the 1970s, the reduction
in the infant mortality rate was faster than during the
earlier period. Between 1951-61 and 1961-71, infant
mortality rate declined by 28 points, that is, around
23 per cent. However, between 1961-71 and 1971-81,
infant mortality rate declined by about 40 points, the
highest-ever decline. With a lag of 10 years of fertility
decline, the infant mortality rate decline gained a
momentum during the 1970s. Also, the nutritional intake
of children, though below normal requirements, has been
increasing since the 1970s. The sizeable money saved as
a result of the reduction in family size stood in good stead
for providing better food to children, since the couples
were conscious about the quality of life for children.
2.1.5 Demographic Bonus
and Economic Growth
It now goes without saying that fertility decline in Kerala
has been beneficial for advancing school education and
improving the health of children. The demographic bonus
in Kerala is not just a large supply of labour, but of children
having been educated at and above middle school level,
especially during the 1990s. Table 5.2 presents the trends
in the potential labour supply (age 20-59) by levels of
education in Kerala from 1981 to 1998, which shows that
the stock of the illiterate declined significantly for both
males and females. Also, the stock of the literate and ‘those
completing primary schooling’ declined significantly for
males while for females, it remained stable. It is interesting to
note that those with middle and secondary-level education
increased by more than three times during the 1990s from
the 1981 level for both males and females. In the case of
males, the stock in the tertiary sector increased by two
times between 1981 and 1998 and for females, by three
times. Significantly, during the 1990s, higher education
among females increased much more than among males.
This might be partly due to the increase in the volume of
educated emigrants among males.
Table 5.2: Potential Labour Force (Age 20-59) by Level of Education
Male
(Population in thousands)
Female
(Population in thousands)
1981 1991 1998 1981 1991 1998
Illiterate 750 448 262 1,677 1,034 737
Literate & Primary
Complete
2,642 2,507 1,941 2,461 2,804 2,438
Middle Complete 1,220 2,162 3,120 1,008 1,933 3,155
Secondary Complete 753 1,479 1,923 583 1,341 1,884
Tertiary 325 630 650 216 493 665
Total 5,689 7,226 7,896 5,944 7,606 8,878
Percentages
Illiterate 13.18 6.20 3.32 28.21 13.59 8.30
Literate & Primary
Complete
46.43 34.69 24.58 41.40 36.87 27.46
Middle Complete 21.44 29.92 39.51 16.96 25.42 35.53
Secondary Complete 13.24 20.47 24.36 9.81 17.64 21.22
Tertiary 5.72 8.72 8.23 3.63 6.49 7.49
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: Census Reports, various years; Kerala Migration Survey, 1998.