Kerala 2005 - of Planning Commission

128
First, let us take the case of population. Kerala, as
we have seen in earlier chapters, will reach a stable
population of around 35 million (currently 31.8 million)
within the next 10 years or so. Kerala will have around
60-62 per cent of its population in the working age-group
of 15 to 59 years, which can be translated into reduced
dependency provided adequate employment is provided to
all those who seek it. This share of working age population
is similar to the countries in East and South East Asia with
similar demographic behaviour. The task here is to focus
on the gainful employment and employability of this
population. The number of those employed in the formal
sector is only around 10 per cent of the current work force
(employed plus the unemployed) of around 12 million;
around 1.84 million Keralites are working abroad, i.e.
15 per cent of Kerala’s work force or one-and-a-half times of
those working in the formal/organised sector. 4 One of the
main reasons for such large-scale migration is the absence
of gainful employment within Kerala.
Second, those in the working age group in Kerala are
qualitatively different from those even a couple of
decades ago. Despite high unemployment, the trend
is one of increasing the formal qualification of the
potential job seekers. Our survey in the three districts of
Thiruvananthapuram, Ernakulam and Kannur revealed
that nearly half (46 per cent) of those in the working age
group have at least an SSLC pass, the cumulative result
of universalisation of education in Kerala. If we take the
younger generation (15 to 35 years), 58 per cent has
a qualification of SSLC or above. This share is bound to
increase in the years to come.
The survey also revealed that there is not only a mismatch
between qualification and work done but also a problem
of matching qualifications with available job opportunities.
Most unemployed are also unemployable in the sense
they have only 10 or 12 years of general education. They
have no particular skill or specialised knowledge. But their
expectations are higher than those who seek manual work,
with the result that fewer and fewer unemployed youth
offer themselves for manual work involving drudgery and
a low social status. In fact, there has been a steady flow of
migrant workers into Kerala from other parts of the country
to do the available manual work. This has led to a seemingly
paradoxical situation of high unemployment and scarcity of
local labour for unskilled manual work. From the demand
side, there is need for technological change that creates
demand for more skilled work. But there is also need to supply
a qualitatively better labour force. Therefore, advancing
educational capabilities with a focus on quality is crucial
to Kerala’s further development. The younger generation of
work-seekers are seeking ‘jobs’ and not mere ‘work’.
Third, globalisation has opened up a wider set of opportunities,
both within the country and outside. A large number of
people from Kerala, with some minimum level of general
education, positioned themselves to seek opportunities
abroad much before the current process of globalisation.
This is the international labour migration, mainly to Gulf
countries, contributing to Kerala’s economy in a significant
way. As we mentioned in the earlier chapter, international
remittance income into Kerala is estimated around
21-22 per cent of the State income (i.e. State domestic
product). If one considers the multiplier effect of this
remittance income as well as income from exports (of spices,
cashew, coir, fish, educational/entertainment products,
etc), it is quite possible to hazard an estimate of around or
more than 40 per cent of Kerala’s domestic income being
generated directly or indirectly through its integration with
the outside world. Clearly, Kerala is increasingly getting
integrated into the global economic milieu.
Fourth, migration of labour from Kerala has contributed
to another favourable factor. This refers to the exposure of
close to 2.73 million people (emigrants and return emigrants
as of 2004) to the outside world, mainly through their life
and work in the Gulf countries. They have been exposed
to interacting with people from different countries and
cultures, working with modern technologies, organisation
and management, and with all these, the possibility of
enhancing one’s standard of life. The new knowledge and
skills acquired by them are now being put into practice
4 Kannan and Hari, op. cit.