Kerala 2005 - of Planning Commission

CHAPTER 5
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
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in 2021. The share of the working age population, both
prime and middle, (age group 15-59), which provides
an opportunity for economic growth, increased from
51 per cent in 1961 to 61 per cent in 1991 and reached
64 per cent in 2001, with little prospects for further
increase. In fact, the projected population shows there
will be a marginal decline in the share of working age
population in 2021 and this trend is likely to continue.
Since the age group 15-59, is a broad one, with different
effects for different groups on the economy, it is important
to study the dynamics within this age group. Thus, we
find that the share of the youth population increased
from 17 per cent in 1961 to 21 per cent in 1991 and
started declining thereafter. Similarly, the share of the
prime working age population (25-44) increased from
24 per cent in 1961 to 32 per cent in 2001, but here too,
with a declining prospect. The late working age population,
on the contrary, increased from 10 per cent to 14 per cent
in 2001 and is projected to reach 21 per cent in 2021.
2.1.2 Dependency Ratios
Figure 5.2 shows the changes in the dependency ratios in
Kerala. There were 83 young dependents (0-14 ages) for
100 working age population in 1961. This has declined
to 49 in 1991 and is expected to go further down to
30 in 2021. Note that the tempo of decline was higher
between 1971 and 2001, though from 2001 onwards, the
decline is expected to slow down. Against this, the old
age dependency ratio (ODR) increased from 11 in 1961
to 14 in 1991. Its acceleration is likely to be greater from
2001 onwards. By the year 2021, there will be about
26 old people for every 100 working age population.
Though the total dependency ratio declined since 1961
mainly due to the decline in the young dependency
ratio (YDR), it became stable by 2001 because the
effect of the decline in the young dependent population
was more than compensated for by an increase in the
old age dependent population. This, in turn, implies that
the total dependency ratio is likely to go up from 2011,
mainly due to the large increase in the share of old age
dependent population.
2.1.3 Growth Rate of Working Age Population
Since labour productivity is lower in the age group of
15-19, as this age group is mostly engaged in education,
the growth rate of the working age population in the
age group of 20-59 is considered. Not much difference
is found between the growth rate of the working age
population and the total population during the period
1961-71 (Table 5.1). However, after this period, the
growth rate of the working age population appears
significantly higher than that of the total population till
1991-2001, and is projected thereafter to converge again.
Note that the higher growth of population in the age group
45-59 continues for a long time and may act in a positive
way on the economic growth through their higher
propensity for savings. As already mentioned, the rate of
savings is expected to be higher in this age group, as they
would have by then completed the investment for raising
their children and for household necessities.