Kerala 2005 - of Planning Commission

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maximum result within the given economic and social
parameters. The long-run is usually referred to a timehorizon
during which increases in productive capacity is
taken into account through investment as well as changes
in institutional variables. Such a distinction should not also
be taken as a water-tight compartment. In reality, there
are times and areas in which the short and the long-run
intersect. However such a distinction is analytically useful
in spelling out some policy options.
Let us take the short term first. As we have been
emphasising, unemployment, mainly educated
unemployment, is the biggest socio-economic problem
in Kerala. As seen in Chapter 6, the quality of education
is crucial if the State is to convert this pool of educated
labour into one which could be employable both within
and outside its labour market. International migration has
provided a useful outlet for this pool of labour in Kerala.
Until the late 1990s, two-thirds of emigrants had only
less than 10 years of schooling. This was because there
was a high demand for unskilled labour in such manual
work as in construction, maintenance, trading, etc. With
the end of the construction boom in Gulf countries, the
demand pattern has been undergoing a significant change.
The demand now is for skilled labour as well as those
with specialised knowledge (Table 8.2). Estimates show
a tremendous potential in areas where the State could
take advantage as a matter of short run policy. The recent
CDS migration survey (2003) 10 has revealed that the
proportion of graduates in the emigrant population has
doubled between 1998 and 2003 (from 10 to 29 per cent)
indicating this change in demand for labour. Training in
English language and preparing for eligibility tests form
part of this short-run strategy. This should go along with
qualitative improvement in the relevant education.
Table 8.2: Number of US Jobs Moving Offshore
2005 2010 2015
Life Science 3,700 14,000 37,000
Legal 14,000 35,000 75,000
Art, Design 6,000 14,000 30,000
Management 37,000 1,18,000 2,88,000
Business Operations 61,000 1,62,000 3,48,000
Computer 1,09,000 2,77,000 4,73,000
Architecture 32,000 83,000 1,84,000
Sales 29,000 97,000 2,27,000
Office Support 2,95,000 7,91,000 17,00,000
Total 33,00,000
Source: Paper Presented by Mr. G. Vijayaraghavan, in a Seminar on
“Kerala Human Development Report,” November 29, 2003.
The areas in which Kerala can initiate policy and related
changes without waiting for a long-run strategy are:
Training of doctors and other health professionals, skilled
personnel for the ICT-based activities, teachers, engineers
and professionals for the visual and print media. Adequate
capacity already exists in such areas. Let us elaborate on
some of them in greater detail so that the transition from
dependency can be reduced to one of income resource
generation. We consider two areas for further elaboration.
One is purely internal and the other external. Both are
selected because there is no deficiency of demand.
As already mentioned, there is a large segment of the
educated unemployed who have only 10 to 12 years of
schooling without any specialised skill and/or knowledge.
Their ability to acquire further educational capabilities
is limited given their socio-economic background. It,
therefore, becomes imperative to create employment
opportunities for such a large pool of labour.
Given their general educational background, their learning
curve is likely to be short when they are trained for a whole
range of services based on ICT. One of the areas providing
useful employment – for the beneficiaries as well as the
providers – is e-governance and e-training. We have already
mentioned the Akshaya Model of e-literacy for the population
(Box 8.3) and the e-learning programme in the school system
(called IT@School). The e-governance programme has seen
some welcome, and often innovative, initiatives in Kerala.
These are the FRIENDS programme for selected public
service delivery, computerisation and e-linking of local self-
Governments and computerisation of selected Government
departments and/or services such as the treasury.
10 See Zachariah and Rajan (2004).