2010 ilerleme raporu - Avrupa Birliği Bakanlığı

in the first half of 2009, economic growth resumed in the second half and then gained pace in
the first half of 2010 recouping the output lost in 2009. Domestic demand drove the fastest
expansion in almost six years. Real GDP increased in the first half of 2010 by 11% from a
year earlier, up from 2% in the second half of 2009, reflecting a very significant recovery over
the last year. All sectors demonstrated strong positive growth: trade, industry and construction
expanded by over 15% in the first semester of 2010. Domestic demand and in particular
investment were particularly strong, as the year-on-year growth in gross fixed capital
formation amounted to a sheer 22%. The high growth in domestic demand translated into
imports growth amounting to 20%. Net exports pulled down the growth performance by
3.4%. Consumer and corporate loans have maintained their rapid pace and continue to spur
domestic demand. High frequency indicators point at a growth slowdown – albeit gradual and
from very high levels – starting in mid-2010. Overall, the Turkish economy has demonstrated
high resilience. It is recovering rapidly from the crisis and growing at robust rates since mid-
2009.
Pressures on the current account – which had seen a major crisis-led improvement – started in
late 2009, as robust domestic demand and higher energy prices fuelled imports, which
increased by 30% in the first half of 2010. In tandem with the rise in imports, exports
performed relatively well and rose by about 15% in the first six months of 2010.
Consequently, the trade deficit more than doubled passing from 3% of GDP in the first half of
2009 to 6.2% of GDP in the same period in 2010. The current account balance broadly shows
similar patterns and the deficit is widening rapidly. In the first six months of 2010, the deficit
amounted to 6.2% of GDP, compared with 2.7% in the same period of 2009. Total financing
needs have almost doubled in 2010. The financing has been shifting dramatically towards
more portfolio and in particular more cross-border credits to domestic banks (covering two
thirds of the current account deficit) and less direct investment. Reserves rose by about €4
billion to roughly €40 billion. The gross external debt stock amounted to 37% of GDP in the
first half of 2010, down by about five percentage points from the same period in 2009. About
two thirds is held by the private sector. Overall, external imbalances and financing needs have
been growing significantly on the back of high domestic growth. Access to external finance
remained unproblematic.
In 2009, the unemployment rate amounted to 14%. In tandem with the recovery, the
unemployment rate declined to 11% by mid-2010 from 13% in mid-2009. The non-farm
unemployment rate, which stood at 17% in mid-2010, showed a broadly similar downward
trend. The youth unemployment rate dropped faster, most likely due to the priority given to
this segment in the employment package, to 20% from over 24% in July last year.
Employment data show a marked improvement, as the number of employed increased by over
1,000,000 compared with July last year. The employment rate went up from 42% in mid-2009
to 44% in the same period of 2010. Female labour participation increased by over 1.5
percentage points since mid-2009, but female employment remains particularly low, at just
half the overall rate. The prevalence of undeclared work remains a crucial issue (See Chapter
19: Social Policy and employment). Given the high unemployment rate and the annual growth
rate of 1.2% in the working-age population, the labour market needs to absorb not only the
unemployed but also one million new entrants every year. Overly strict employment
protection discourages employers from hiring new people. Overall, the unemployment rate
remains higher than pre-crisis and demographic factors are expected to keep unemployment
high in years ahead in the absence of additional labour market reforms and the application of
an appropriate combination of flexibility and security.
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