2010 ilerleme raporu - Avrupa Birliği Bakanlığı

the sharp drop in real interest rates in recognition of Turkey’s solid fundamentals. At the same
time, potential growth in Turkey is being held back by high inactivity and insufficiently
broad-based productivity growth. Overall, the crisis did not jeopardise the functioning of
market mechanisms.
Human and physical capital
The educational reform programme, which is a key part of the National Development Plan
(2007-2013), is being implemented. It sets two key priorities for education, modernisation and
reform: increase the responsiveness of education to demand and enhance the educational
system. In 2010, the challenges remain significant. Although there has been some progress
and the top students in Turkey are performing well, the vast majority of Turkish students
perform at the lowest proficiency levels in basic skills and problem-solving. Participation in
higher education remains low by international standards. Around 44% of 20- to 24-year olds
go to university, 8 percentage points more than in 2006, while only 1.5% of school-age
children fail to finish primary school, compared with 10% in 2006. Overall, reforms and
increased spending on education are obviously having some positive impact on educational
attainment, but significant problems persist.
During the crisis, investment decreased and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell by
around 3% in 2009 to about 20% of GDP, but growth resumed by as much as 22% in the first
half of 2010. Private capital formation totalled around 15% of nominal GDP. FDI inflows
held up relatively well in 2009 helped by the privatisation of the electricity grids but fell by
about 20% in the first half of 2010 compared with a year earlier. At the same time, their
composition improved, as more than three quarters went into utilities and manufacturing. For
many years infrastructure investment has been hampered by the need to consolidate public
finances and the failure to cut lower-priority spending. Inadequate infrastructure is
increasingly affecting economic activity. Though in 2009 and 2010 some ─ albeit modest ─
progress can be reported on infrastructure, in particular roads and oil pipelines, there is a risk
that inadequate infrastructure, including for power supply, could hamper the economic
recovery. Gross electricity consumption growth has averaged some 7% in each of the last few
years, and extra power-generating capacity is being constructed, albeit with some delays.
Although the official government target was to increase research and development
expenditure to 2% of GDP by 2010, R&D expenditure remains much lower, on just 1.4%.
Overall, some limited progress was made on upgrading the country’s human and physical
capital.
Sectoral and enterprise structure
The independence of the regulatory and surveillance agencies has been largely preserved.
Market liberalisation has not advanced in agriculture, whereas some progress has been made
in the pricing mechanisms for the energy sector. The sectoral shift from agriculture to services
and industry was reversed by the slowdown in economic activity. The share of agriculture in
overall employment increased from 23.7% to 24.7% between December 2008 and December
2009. The share of services stabilised at 50%. On the other hand, both industry and
construction saw their relative shares of total employment decline by a combined total of
1.5%. The quality and frequency of data on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
remained poor. Various new initiatives have been launched to improve access to finance for
SMEs. However, the share of SMEs in total banking sector loans decreased from 23% at the
end of 2008 to 21.4% by December 2009. For instance, a new guarantee fund for SMEs was
part of the stimulus packages with the aim of alleviating the impact of the crisis on SME
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