Libro de Resúmenes / Book of Abstracts (Español/English)
Libro de Resúmenes / Book of Abstracts (Español/English)
Libro de Resúmenes / Book of Abstracts (Español/English)
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Resumenes 104<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los para la dispersión <strong>de</strong> SIDA y su relación con los datos<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>ls <strong>of</strong> the spread <strong>of</strong> AIDS and their relation to data<br />
Helmut Knolle<br />
Berna,Suiza<br />
An interesting paper by Niels Becker, who has published more than<br />
20 papers and a book on epi<strong>de</strong>mic mo<strong>de</strong>ls in relation to data, has convinced<br />
me that epi<strong>de</strong>mic mo<strong>de</strong>ls should be related to some empirical data (Becker<br />
1979). Therefore a recently published mo<strong>de</strong>l <strong>of</strong> the spread <strong>of</strong> HIV in the<br />
general population (Knolle 2004) is presented together with HIV-data from<br />
Colombia and some <strong>de</strong>mographic data which have an impact on the<br />
assumptions <strong>of</strong> that mo<strong>de</strong>l. The HIV-data come from anonymous unlinked<br />
tests (pruebas anonimas no ligadas) <strong>of</strong> large samples <strong>of</strong> pregnant women in<br />
prenatal care and persons in general medical consulting, and exhibit a<br />
characteristic age distribution. The correspon<strong>de</strong>nce <strong>of</strong> the predictions <strong>of</strong> the<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l with the existing data will be discussed, and it will be indicated what<br />
further data are nee<strong>de</strong>d in or<strong>de</strong>r to validate the mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
References<br />
• Becker, Niels (1979) The uses <strong>of</strong> epi<strong>de</strong>mic mo<strong>de</strong>ls. Biometrics 35, 295-305<br />
• Knolle, Helmut (2004) A discrete branching process mo<strong>de</strong>l for the spread <strong>of</strong><br />
HIV via steady sexual partnerships, Journal <strong>of</strong> Mathematical Biology 48,<br />
423-443443