Libro de Resúmenes / Book of Abstracts (Español/English)

Resumenes 89
A(H3N2). Starting in Vietnam, with the first proved case, with similar
symptoms to the usual flu and an incubation period of 3 days, characterized
for having get in contact with infected birds, or with its secretions, with the
very same virus. The birds have their natural reservoirs and they can infect
humans, at this time, they are rare cases and until now, humans can't infect
humans. Nevertheless, helped by the common scientific rigour of the
doctors and veterinarians, we can conclude that given the persistence of the
H5N1 flu since 1997, the genetic changes that allow the humans to get
infected by themselves, in the same subtype virus (H5N1) is imminent.
That's the reason why the WHO let out an international alert.
In this paper a Mathematical Model is proposed to study the H5N1
Aviar Flu in two stages: The fisrt one is formed by a fenomenological model
of the H5N1 flu, which has as its unique variable the passed time τ since the
moment when the succeptible one is infected by the pathogenical agent.
This model comes to a single system of ordinary differential equation that
AIDS to estimate some of the parameters. The second stage consists in the
very mathematical model, posed with the passed time (t) of the epidemics
itself, as well as the τ; time, that we had introduced already. The overall
result is a system of integral-differential equations way much more
complicated than the first one. The scientific analogy is achieved by the use
of the Continuum Mechanics. This result lies in the analysis of two extreme
scenarios: the former corresponds to a very-controled-in-time epidemics,
which is a stage where it doesn't happen nothing extraordinary and the
people involved can be counted only by hundreds, meanwhile the latter is
catastrophic and the numbers we deal with are counted by thousands, even
millions, depending on the population size. Even this stage is not very
likely, it would mainly correspond to a non-controlled epidemic with an
important detection delay.
Referencias
• http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en
• Alvarado de la BC, Reyes TG; Comunicación personal; Influenza: Forecast
for an epidemia,...En prensa.
• Responding to the avian influenza pandemic threat; WHO /CDS /GIP /2005.8
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/globalsurveillanc
e/en
• Avian influenza: assessing the pandemic threat; WHO /CDS /GIP /2005.29
http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza /WHO _CDS _CSR
_NCS _2002.5/en
• Gómez AG, "Modelo Matemático del SARS para la Ciudad de México", 2003,
Foro-Red-Mat:, 2003 , Vol. 13, No.5, 1-20; http://www.red-mat.unam .mx
/~foro (conjunto con , Boyev BV)