Libro de Resúmenes / Book of Abstracts (Español/English)

Resumenes 58
sufficiently fast, in accordance to a survey of “Fundo de Defesa da
Citricultura (Fundecitrus – Araraquara/SP)”.
The first signal that can be noticed in the plants are pale green
foliage, a generalized loss of the brightness of leaves, followed by fast
falling, with few internal sprouting. The sick plants have a great amount of
rotten and dead roots. In the final stage of the disease, all the leaves fall
and the tree dies. The yelow aspect observed at the stalk of the grafting is
the main diagnostic signal of CSD.
Researchers of the Alellyx Genomics (Campinas/SP) have discovered
two insects known as aphids that transmit the virus suspected to be the
responsible for the CSD. Thus, we have assumed that the intensity of the
winds, v, influences the transmission force of the disease. The dispersion of
the vector, r, is proportional to the intensity of the winds. Since the
information obtained for v and r is of the linguistic type, for example, low,
average, high, amongst others, we opted for the rule-based fuzzy system to
establish the relation between v e r by means of a base of fuzzy rules.
In this work, we have adopted the Cellular Automata model (CA) to
study the advance of the disease. The CA is represented spacially by a grate
of cells (unit of plant) that interacts by obeying some rules of state change:
symptomatic and non symptomatic.
Simulations were done and compared with real data. Through the
use of the method MAE (Mean Absolute Error), it was possible to verify a
concordance of 70% between real and our model data.