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Resumenes 58 sufficiently fast, in accordance to a survey of “Fundo de Defesa da Citricultura (Fundecitrus – Araraquara/SP)”. The first signal that can be noticed in the plants are pale green foliage, a generalized loss of the brightness of leaves, followed by fast falling, with few internal sprouting. The sick plants have a great amount of rotten and dead roots. In the final stage of the disease, all the leaves fall and the tree dies. The yelow aspect observed at the stalk of the grafting is the main diagnostic signal of CSD. Researchers of the Alellyx Genomics (Campinas/SP) have discovered two insects known as aphids that transmit the virus suspected to be the responsible for the CSD. Thus, we have assumed that the intensity of the winds, v, influences the transmission force of the disease. The dispersion of the vector, r, is proportional to the intensity of the winds. Since the information obtained for v and r is of the linguistic type, for example, low, average, high, amongst others, we opted for the rule-based fuzzy system to establish the relation between v e r by means of a base of fuzzy rules. In this work, we have adopted the Cellular Automata model (CA) to study the advance of the disease. The CA is represented spacially by a grate of cells (unit of plant) that interacts by obeying some rules of state change: symptomatic and non symptomatic. Simulations were done and compared with real data. Through the use of the method MAE (Mean Absolute Error), it was possible to verify a concordance of 70% between real and our model data.
Resumenes 59 Um modelo matemático discreto para a dispersão da febre aftosa em bovinos Luiz Alberto Díaz Rodrigues 1 , Diomar C. Mistro 1 , Leonardo R. Emmendorfer, Cristiane F. Cavalin 1 Departamento de Matemática, UFSM Santa Maria, RS, Brasil luizdiaz@smail.ufsm.br A Febre Aftosa é uma doença viral com grande poder de difusão, que acomete bovinos. Um surto epidêmico desta enfermidade pode causar grandes prejuízos econômicos, limitando o acesso do país afetado ao mercado internacional de carnes e derivados. Por este motivo, é de grande interesse o estudo de medidas de prevenção e controle de possíveis epidemias. Neste trabalho, elaboramos um modelo matemático discreto para o estudo da dinâmica de uma epidemia de Febre Aftosa. No modelo, a transmissão se dá pelo contato direto entre os indivíduos próximos e também por contatos não locais que representam a dispersão do vírus por ventos, pássaros e veículos automotores. Os resultados obtidos através das simulações permitem estimar a velocidade de propagação de uma epidemia de Febre Aftosa. Além disso, o mecanismo não local considerado no modelo permite justificar a pouca eficiência das barreiras sanitárias no controle de uma epidemia. Palavras-Chaves: Autômata Celular, Febre Aftosa. The spread of the foot-and-mouth disease: a discrete mathematical model The foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious viral illness. It spreads itself out very fast in bovines. An outbreak of this disease may cause great economical losses and, therefore, affect considerably the country in the international meat market. As a consequence, the research on prevention and control measures of possible outbreaks is of paramount interest. In this paper, we worked on a discrete mathematical model, based on Cellular Automata, to study the dynamics of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. In the proposed model, the illness is transmitted in two ways: 1. by the immediate contact with the contaminated members of the population (local contacts); 2. contamination carried out by the wind, birds or vehicles engine propelled (non local contacts). Block zones were inserted in order to represent the actual mechanism used to avoid the spreading of the disease. The results obtained through this simulation allow us to estimate the propagation speed of an eventual outbreak of this disease. In addition, the called non local mechanism included in the model justifies the sanitary barriers’ lack of efficiency in controlling such outbreaks. Keywords: Cellular Automata, Foot-and-Mouth Disease.
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ORGANIZADO POR LA SOCIEDAD LATINOAM
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(en orden alfabético) COMITÉ CIEN
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CURSILLOS Cursillo Nº1: Dinámica
Page 9: CONFERENCIAS INVITADAS
Page 12 and 13: Conferencias 10 Estabilidad y persi
Page 14 and 15: Conferencias 12 (K, the ‘carrying
Page 16 and 17: Conferencias 14 Víctimas Inmigrant
Page 18 and 19: Conferencias 16 Influencia de la di
Page 21 and 22: Resumenes 19 Bifurcaciones de Hopf
Page 23 and 24: Resumenes 21 where y = y(t) represe
Page 25 and 26: Resumenes 23 Dinámica del modelo d
Page 27 and 28: Resumenes 25 In this work, we propo
Page 29 and 30: Resumenes 27 Simulação computacio
Page 31 and 32: Resumenes 29 of the minisymposium:
Page 33 and 34: Resumenes 31 Honeybee, Apis mellife
Page 35 and 36: Resumenes 33 The minimum ratio is t
Page 37 and 38: Resumenes 35 [1] On the role of end
Page 39 and 40: Resumenes 37 Modelo matemático de
Page 41 and 42: Resumenes 39 Figure 1: Plano de fas
Page 43 and 44: Resumenes 41 Dinámica de poblacion
Page 45 and 46: Resumenes 43 El método de las solu
Page 47 and 48: Resumenes 45 Dinámica de un tumor
Page 49 and 50: Resumenes 47 Several cancer models
Page 51 and 52: Resumenes 49 process is physically
Page 53 and 54: Resumenes 51 For the analysis of fr
Page 55 and 56: Resumenes 53 Sustainability in floo
Page 57 and 58: Resumenes 55 Sincronismo em redes d
Page 59: Resumenes 57 Um modelo de autômato
Page 63 and 64: Resumenes 61 Redes de mapas acoplad
Page 65 and 66: Resumenes 63 Sobre la dinámica de
Page 67 and 68: Resumenes 65 Un modelo de depredaci
Page 69 and 70: Resumenes 67 There exists wide evid
Page 71 and 72: Resumenes 69 Modelado del control n
Page 73 and 74: Resumenes 71 Modelo de red neuronal
Page 75 and 76: Resumenes 73 Efectos de la radiaci
Page 77 and 78: Resumenes 75 Un modelo matemático
Page 79 and 80: Resumenes 77 Estudio comparativo de
Page 81 and 82: Resumenes 79 Introduction The proje
Page 83 and 84: Resumenes 81 formulation to obtain
Page 85 and 86: Resumenes 83 tiene un único punto
Page 87 and 88: Resumenes 85 [4] Courchamp, F., Clu
Page 89 and 90: Resumenes 87 An important part of a
Page 91 and 92: Resumenes 89 A(H3N2). Starting in V
Page 93 and 94: Resumenes 91 i) Panmixia, donde se
Page 95 and 96: Resumenes 93 punto de equilibrio y
Page 97 and 98: Resumenes 95 Un modelo epidemiológ
Page 99 and 100: Resumenes 97 Aproximación saddlepo
Page 101 and 102: Resumenes 99 [3] Daniels, H. E. 196
Page 103 and 104: Resumenes 101 bloqueados. El nudo q
Page 105 and 106: Resumenes 103 Referencias • Stauf
Page 107 and 108: Resumenes 105 Un modelo dinámico d
Page 109 and 110: Resumenes 107 Un modelo en ecuacion
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Resumenes 109 The mite show a prefe
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Resumenes 111 Ondas viajantes en un
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Resumenes 113 [5] Pregnolatto S. de
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Resumenes 115 All this will enable
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Resumenes 117 Extensión de un mode
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Resumenes 119 ∂C ∂C C = 0. = 0.
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Resumenes 121 Comparación de Enfoq
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Resumenes 123 Refúgios Espaciais e
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Resumenes 125 La dinámica del sest
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Resumenes 127 Dinámica poblacional
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Resumenes 129 Aproximación y simul
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Resumenes 131 An age-structured fin
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Resumenes 133 Respuestas demográfi
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Resumenes 135 Modelando el efecto A
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Resumenes 137 the Allee effect are
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Resumenes 139 Tratamientos de endom
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Resumenes 141 Implicaciones del efe
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Resumenes 143 phenomenon has been e
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Resumenes 145 Dinámica individual
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Resumenes 147 • f mixing ⇔ f mi
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Resumenes 149 Introduction The inve
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Resumenes 151 DNA microarrays are t
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Resumenes 153 V. Cholerae: Primeros
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Resumenes 155 Análisis cuantitativ
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Resumenes 157 Dinámica de un model
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Resumenes 159 Obtención de paráme
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Resumenes 161 [4] Nagy K. A (1987)
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Resumenes 163 diferencial automáti
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Resumenes 165 The localized peaks S
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Resumenes 167 obteniéndose que sie
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Resumenes 169 [CLARK 90] Clark, C.
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Resumenes 171 Numerical algorithms
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Resumenes 173 The second method of
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Resumenes 175 los parámetros son t
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Resumenes 177 Bifurcación hacia at
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Resumenes 179 Malaria is the tropic
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