Consciousness-Based Education - Maharishi University of ...

AbstractThis paper empirically tests the hypothesis that over the years 1979 through1986, the climate of superpower relations was significantly improved throughthe reduction of global stress and tension produced by four large global “WorldPeace Assemblies” of experts practicing the Transcendental Meditationand TM-Sidhi program. In these Assemblies, the number of participantsapproached or exceeded the predicted critical threshold for a global effect: the√1% of the world’s population, approximately 7000. Consistent with theoreticalprediction, time series analysis found evidence of a significant increasein cooperation and a reduction in conflict for Soviet behavior directed towardthe US, as measured by monthly content-analyzed data from the ZürichProject on East-West Relations. This improvement in Soviet behavior wasfound both during and shortly following the Assemblies.The empirical analysis was based on a transfer function model thatincluded a binary intervention variable to measure the impact of the globalAssemblies. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model found both a significantimmediate impact of the Assemblies on Soviet behavior toward theUS (p = .0034) as well as delayed effects at lags 2 (p = .0125) and 4 months(p = .00004). The null hypothesis that the Assemblies had no effect on Sovietbehavior was also rejected by a likelihood ratio test of the joint significanceof all three intervention parameters (p = .0029). The estimated long-runimprovement in Soviet actions (“steady state gain”) was substantial, equivalentto 2.45 standard deviations of the ratings of Soviet behavior. Thus theseresults were practically, as well as statistically, significant.Sensitivity analysis and diagnostic tests found that the impact of theAssemblies could not be explained by seasonal or other cyclical patterns inSoviet behavior, trends in the data (including the “spurious regression phenomenon”),or extreme outliers. Also, the estimated impact of the Assembliesremained large and statistically significant (p = .0117) after adding a variableto the model to measure the impact of Mikhail Gorbachev on Sovietforeign policy. While a significant positive estimate was found for the Gorbachevvariable (p = .00004), the improvement in Soviet behavior attributedto the Assemblies was 1.71 times larger. Also, from the standpoint of thetheoretical framework underlying this research, the transformation in Sovietpolicy toward the West under Gorbachev can be interpreted as the endogenousresult of decreased stress and tension in world consciousness due to the impactof the global Assemblies.457