Consciousness-Based Education - Maharishi University of ...

consciousness-based education and Governmentin this study. In any event, all inferences in times series modeling arebased on asymptotic results.16Although it was significant at only the .10 level (p = .0688), the constantterm was retained in the TF model because the AIC was higherwithout it.17With one exception (a correlation between the lag 5 and 6 AR noiseparameter estimates of –.45), all correlations between parameter estimateswere 0.34 or less in absolute value.18As reported in Table 2, the residual standard error is 26.804. Thesteady state gain is also 1.71 times the interquartile range (third quartileminus first quartile) for USSR t. The interquartile range (53.613)is the span of the middle 50 percent of the data, a variability measuremore robust to outlying observations than the standard deviation.19Controlling for the effect of the World Peace Assemblies, an increaseof one unit in the index of US behavior toward the USSR was followedone month later, on average, by an increase of 0.214 units in the ratingof Soviet actions toward the US. Analysis of daily or weekly data mightconceivably reveal evidence of stronger reciprocity that is not detectableusing monthly data. Although the single equation analysis of thispaper does not directly examine the issue of possible contemporaneousUS-Soviet interactions in the monthly data, evidence for such significantinteraction was found in the context of a simultaneous equationTF analysis of this data by Gelderloos et al. (1990a, 1990b).20Sensitivity analysis found that the intervention results in Table 2 wererobust to the possible presence of outlying observations. SCA’s automatedoutlier identification and estimation procedure (Scientific ComputingAssociates, 1990) was used to estimate a TF model includingcomponents to model detected outliers. The default values for the SCAsoftware’s oestim procedure were used. For the outlier-adjusted model,the estimated intervention parameters at lags 0, 2, and 4 remained sizeableand highly significant (t = 3.94, p = .00004; t = 3.80, p = .0001;t = 4.85, p = 6 x 10-7, respectively). The three intervention parameterswere also jointly significant, as indicated by the likelihood ratio test(λ = 21.983, d.f. = 3, p = .0001). The steady state gain for the Assemblieswas 78.699. All diagnostic tests were satisfactory for the outlieradjustedmodel. The null hypothesis of normally distributed residualscould not be rejected using the Jarque-Bera test (Χ 2 (2) = .615, p = .735).488