Consciousness-Based Education - Maharishi University of ...

consciousness-based education and GovernmentAcknowledgementsWe would like to express our thanks to Professors Dieter Ruloffand Daniel Frei for providing us with their events data, and also to theCenter for International Development and Conflict Management forproviding the COPDAB files.Endnotes1Previous analysis of this data found evidence of a contemporaneousendogenous relation between the variables USSR tand US t(Gelderloos,Cavanaugh, and Davies, 1990a, 1990b).2Differencing of all variables in the model would be indicated if theestimated AR(1) parameter were very close to 1.0 (or if the root of theAR polynomial were on or inside the unit circle), suggesting nonstationarity(Liu, 1985).3If the estimated impulse response function displays a decay pattern,the corner method may be used to help identify the form of the rationaltransfer function (Liu and Hanssens, 1982; Liu and Hudak, 1986).4A criterion such as the AIC is useful because there are usually multiplenoise models that yield white noise residuals.5The maximum likelihood estimate of the residual variance is theresidual sum of squares divided by the sample size n, with no correctionfor degrees of freedom.6As suggested by some investigators (Duong, 1984; Brockwell andDavis, 1987), models with AICs within some value c of the minimum(with c set equal to 2.0, a typical value) were considered ascompetitive in terms of the AIC criterion. Selection from the set ofcompetitive models was then made on the basis of diagnostic checksfor model adequacy as well as model simplicity (parsimony).7COPDAB data on US-Soviet interactions for 1978 were used to provideany pre-sample data points required by the SCA program to calculatestarting values needed for estimation.8The spike for April 1986 corresponds to another large assemblythat, unlike the global WPAs, did not at any point during the monthapproach or exceed the predicted critical threshold to produce a globaleffect.9The unit root hypothesis was also rejected using another standard test,the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test (Dickey and Fuller, 1979,486