Consciousness-Based Education - Maharishi University of ...

U.S.-Soviet Relations and the Maharishi Effectmodel parameter estimates can be based on the asymptotic normalityof the maximum likelihood estimates, a result which holds even in thecase of non-normal disturbances (Harvey, 1990; Brockwell and Davis,1987; Li and McCleod, 1988). In addition, sensitivity analysis foundthat normality could not be rejected for the residuals from the modelafter adjustment for possible outliers, and the estimated positive effectof the TM-Sidhi group on Soviet actions remained large and significantin the outlier-adjusted model (p = .0001). Likewise the findings ofall other sensitivity analyses (discussed below) were found to be quiterobust to the possible presence of outlying observations and possiblynon-normal disturbances.A special case of the “spurious correlation” interpretation of theseresults is the “seasonal pattern hypothesis.” The latter implies that thesignificant improvement in Soviet behavior may be attributable not tothe effect of the Assemblies, but rather to a pre-existing seasonal patternof recurrent improvement in Soviet behavior toward the US duringand following the specific months of the Assemblies: December, January,and July. As noted above, however, no evidence of cyclical or otherseasonal patterns was evident in the residuals from the TF model.To investigate more fully whether such a seasonal pattern existedin Soviet behavior, a modified TF model was estimated in which theintervention variable for the Assemblies was replaced with an appropriate“seasonal” intervention variable. The empirical results foundthat during the 1979–1983 period prior to the first global Assemblyin December 1983, Soviet behavior toward the US significantly worsened(t = –2.28, p = .023), on average, rather than improved, duringthe months of December, January, and July. The positive impact of theAssemblies, thus, was shown to be directly counter to the previous patternof deteriorating relations during the specific calendar months inwhich the Assemblies were subsequently held. This sensitivity analysis,therefore, lends no support to view that the significant estimated impactof the global World Peace Assemblies may be the coincidental result ofan established seasonal pattern in Soviet behavior toward the US.The Role of Gorbachev.The study also empirically evaluated the hypothesis that the significantimprovement in Soviet foreign policy actions toward the US was481