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consciousness-based education and GovernmentGorbachev variable was smaller but remained significant 31.620(t = 3.37, p = .0008). For the binary World Peace Assembly variable,the three intervention parameters at lags zero (15.392, t =2.28, p = .011), two (23.385, t = 3.37, p = .0004), and four (18.670,t = 2.81, p = .0025) had the predicted positive sign, and all were individuallysignificant. These three parameters also continued to be jointlysignificant (λ = 17.5747, d.f. = 3, p = .0005). The steady state gain forthe Assemblies was 57.446, equivalent to 1.54 standard deviations ofUSSR t. The parameter estimate at lag one for the variable measuringUS actions was larger, 0.252, and highly significant (t = 5.45, p = 5 x10 -8 ). All residual diagnostics for the model were satisfactory.ReferencesAkaike, H. (1974). A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification.IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control AC-19: 716–23.Andrew, C., and O. Gordievsky (1990). KGB: The Inside Story. NewYork: Harper-Collins.Arbatov, G.A. (1981). Der Sowjetische Standpunkt. Über die Westpolitikder U.S.S.R. Münich: Rogner and Bernard.Azar, E.E. (1982). Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB): A Computer-assistedApproach to Monitoring and Analyzing Internationaland Domestic Conflicts. College Park, MD: Center for InternationalDevelopment and Conflict Management, University ofMaryland.Box, G.E.P., and G.C. Tiao (1975). Intervention Analysis with Applicationsto Economic and Environmental Problems. Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association 70: 70–79.Box, G.E.P., and G.M. Jenkins (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecastingand Control (rev. ed.). San Francisco: Holden-Day.Brockwell, P.J., and R.A. Davis (1987). Time Series Analysis: Theory andMethods. New York: Springer-Verlag.Bundy, M. (1990). From Cold War to Trusting Peace. Foreign Affairs 69:197–212.Chang, I., G.C. Tiao, and C. Chen (1988). Estimation of TimeSeries Parameters in the Presence of Outliers. Technometrica30: 193–204.490