people and planet

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BOX 7.1
Key considerations in projecting educational attainment
Attainment histories, reconstructed from the most recent censuses or
household surveys, are the basis for the new projections. Data were projected
backwards. For example, the share of 40- to 44-year-olds with at least upper
secondary education in 2000 indicates the likely share of 30- to 34-year-olds
with that level of education in 1990.
These backwards projections account for differences in mortality between
education groups. Where possible, they have been validated using
contemporary data sources. They are disaggregated by country, gender, fiveyear
periods between 1970 and 2010, five-year age groups, and six education
levels: none, incomplete primary, primary, lower secondary, upper secondary
and post-secondary.
Using these attainment rates, the new projections aim to predict the probability
that, in a given country, a particular share of the population will have attained at
least a specified education level.
To make these predictions more realistic, several assumptions are made. When
a country’s attainment rate slows or even reverses in one period, because of
economic recession or political conflict, it is not expected to bounce back in the
following period. This makes it necessary to limit, to some extent, the degree of
deviation from the long-term trend.
Another issue in extrapolating past trends is that short-term declines may lead
one to project that a country’s education system will collapse. Many countries
experience setbacks in their history of education development – one recent
example being the Syrian Arab Republic – but no precedent exists for a country
moving along a long-term reverse trajectory. The model therefore assumes
that such countries’ attainment rate will move towards the regional average
after a setback, albeit more slowly.
Given the continuing large gaps between male and female attainment levels
in some countries, and the differences in how fast countries converge to
parity, additional assumptions are needed to project attainment by gender. In
particular, it is assumed that in each period, gender-specific attainment rates
converge towards the average for both males and females at a rate that differs
across education levels and countries but is constant over time.
The scenarios also make explicit assumptions about how accelerating
expansion at one level of the education system affects higher levels. When
more members of a cohort complete a given education level, demand for access
to the next level increases too. This is particularly noticeable in the transition to
post-secondary education: increases in the pool of upper secondary graduates
will raise participation rates in post-secondary education.
Finally, it is assumed, as in the 2015 projections, that the attainment level for
considering a target achieved is 97%. While this is unavoidable, because of the
requirements of the statistical model, it should by no means be interpreted as
meaning that the hardest to reach do not count.
Sources: Barakat et al. (2016); Lutz et al. (2014).
trajectory of upper secondary (and higher) education
will resemble the historical trajectory of basic education,
which has become universal in many countries. As of
2010, nearly 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds in the European
Union had completed upper secondary school. Even the
countries with the highest attainment rates, such as the
Republic of Korea, stood at 95%. With no country having
yet achieved universal upper secondary attainment, it is
difficult to assume all countries will converge to universal
completion. Thus, assumptions for secondary education
growth are driven more by statistics than by experience.
The projections reported here focus on the cohort that
will be aged 15 to 19 in 2030. The aspiration of countries
and others in the international community is that
this group will ultimately achieve universal secondary
completion.
ATTAINMENT RATE PROJECTIONS FOR
FOUR SCENARIOS
In this chapter, results for the attainment rates, or the
highest level of education completed, of 15- to 19-yearolds
by 2030 are presented for four scenarios (Table 7.1).
The analysis confirms the earlier GEM Report projection
that, on past trends, not even the Millennium
Development Goal (MDG) and EFA goal of universal
primary completion is likely to be achieved by 2030.
The target of universal secondary completion is clearly
beyond reach. Under the scenario that past growth
rates will continue, 84% of 15- to 19-year-olds in 2030 are
projected to complete lower secondary education, and
only 69% upper secondary. On these trends, universal
lower secondary completion would be achieved in 2059,
and universal upper secondary completion only in 2084
(Table 7.2).
The challenge for low income countries is particularly
salient. At past rates, half of 15- to 19-year-olds in
2030 will complete lower secondary education and
less than 30% will complete upper secondary. Low
TABLE 7.1:
Projection scenarios
Scenarios Description
Trend Past progress rates will continue into the future (‘business as usual’) …
… or the cohort of those aged 15 to 19 in 2030 will attain:
Low Universal lower secondary by 2030
Slow Universal upper secondary by 2040
(i.e. all transitions up to upper secondary will be universal by 2030; universal upper
secondary will be completed for the cohort entering school in 2030)
SDG 4.1 Universal upper secondary by 2030 (= target 4.1)
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CHAPTER 7 | PROJECTIONS: FORECASTING THE EFFECTS OF EDUCATION EXPANSION ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES