people and planet

2
income countries would be 16% and that for non-OECD
high income countries 10%, reflecting higher enrolment
and skills levels. Even high income OECD countries would
gain significantly from bringing all students up to basic
skills by 2030, with GDP 3.5% higher than otherwise
(OECD, 2015d).
their creative and problem-solving abilities, but has
also displaced workers in medium skill jobs whose
relatively repetitive and procedural tasks are more
easily replicated in computer hardware and code, and
overseas (Autor and Dorn, 2013; Autor et al., 2006;
Goos et al., 2014; Jaimovich and Siu, 2012).
EDUCATION POLICIES WILL HELP COUNTRIES
ADAPT TO A FAST-CHANGING WORLD OF WORK
The world of work has undergone rapid change in
recent decades. ICT has dramatically changed how
we live and work and how economies are structured.
This change is especially apparent in more developed
regions and in urban areas. In poorer countries, there
has been substantial movement from agricultural to
non-farm employment. Moreover, greater integration
of the global economy has opened up economic and
trade opportunities across the world, enabling rapid
growth in the now major economies of Brazil, China and
India, while displacing industries and occupations in
advanced economies through off shoring, particularly
among less educated workers (Autor et al., 2014).
Evidence suggests that similar processes may also be
under way in other regions, although it is premature to
draw conclusions. The global employment share of high
skill workers has
increased by almost
40% since 1990,
The global employment
and is projected to
share of high skill
have accounted for
workers has increased by almost 20% of the
workforce in 2015
almost 40% since 1990
(Figure 2.1). Over the
same period, the
employment share
of medium skill work decreased by almost 10%, while the
share of low skilled work rose correspondingly. These
trends are projected to continue in coming years.
Two trends with profound implications can be
expected to shape labour markets in many countries
in the foreseeable future. First, polarization between
low and high skill work and reduced demand for medium
skilled employment has been widely documented in
industrialized economies, but can also be observed on
the global level. Second, stagnation in manufacturing
employment makes it uncertain that poor countries
can follow the developmental paths which historically
have greatly improved working conditions among the
poor. These interrelated trends can be expected to
significantly shape the scope for decent employment
across countries, challenging policy-makers to increase
the supply of highly skilled and appropriately skilled
workers, while creating conditions in which an educated
workforce can be employed and adequately utilized.
Education systems must adapt to job polarization
Recent evidence from high income countries has
led to increasing awareness of polarization between
high and low skill work. A resulting proposition is
that technological changes underpin the large
relative drops in medium skill employment and
corresponding increases in high and low skill
employment across Europe and Northern America.
Increasingly sophisticated technology has not only
raised demand for high skill workers by complementing
Globally, as in industrialized countries, the majority
of employment remains in medium skill occupations,
which are projected to have made up slightly less
than two-thirds of total employment in 2015 (ILO, 2015c).
However, their share may decline significantly in coming
decades as increasingly cheap and capable computer
programs replace clerical workers and robots displace
garment makers and machine operators 2 . In China, for
example, automation has had a substantial impact on
factory employment, and this trend could accelerate
as wages rise and automation technology becomes
cheaper. In the context of rising manufacturing wages,
President Xi Jinping in 2014 called for a ‘robot revolution’
(Chan, 2015), which already appears to be under way.
The consumer electronics manufacturer Foxconn, one
of the largest employers in China (and the world), plans
to automate about 70% of its factory work by 2018, and
already has a fully robotic factory in Chengdu (Lin, 2015).
Education systems face the dual challenge of ensuring
that those who enter medium skill work have the skill sets
to avoid obsolescence and of meeting the economy’s
increased demand for skilled workers, demand that is likely
to continue in the foreseeable future given that computer
code is no substitute for the creativity and cognitive
abilities of high skill workers. Yet evidence suggests that
most education systems are not keeping up.
2016 • GLOBAL EDUCATION MONITORING REPORT 49