people and planet

2
FIGURE 2.1:
Employment is being polarized by skill category on the global level
Percentage change in global employment shares from 1991, by occupational skill level
50
40
Percentage change since 1991
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014e
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
High skill Low skill Medium skill
Notes: Skilled occupations are classified according to one digit ISCO-08 codes, following the ILO Global Employment Trends (GET) Model Extension
(GME) methodology. High skill occupations are those of managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals. Medium skill workers are
clerical support workers, service and sales workers, skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers, craft and related trades workers, plant and machine
operators, and assemblers. Low skill workers are those in elementary occupations. Data for 2014 are estimates (e). Data for 2015–2019 are projections (p).
Source: GEM Report team calculations based on ILO (2015c).
In high income countries such as the United States,
an insufficient supply of tertiary graduates is well
documented, as evidenced by the rising ‘college
premium’ in wages and growing inequality (Goldin
and Katz, 2010). On the global scale, by 2020 the
world could have 40 million too few workers with
tertiary degrees, relative to demand, and up to 95 million
too many low and medium educated workers. Advanced
economies could have up to 35 million excess workers
without post-secondary education. In poorer countries
the surplus of workers without secondary education
could be as large as 58 million, combined with
45 million too few workers with secondary education
(MGI Global, 2012).
Beyond the need for greater tertiary enrolment, what
forms of skills development should governments
promote? There is a case for expanding TVET at
the post-secondary level in middle skill occupations
that are less prone to automation (Autor, 2015).
Investing in job-specific skills is risky given the
uncertainty as to the effects of technological change.
Still, capacities promoted by general and comprehensive
education – for example, critical thinking, problem
solving, team and project work, and solid literacy,
communication and presentation skills – are likely to
remain valued in the labour market, including in green
jobs, and throughout life.
In addition, education systems could do more to
promote high value skills not easily replicated by
machines or software. Studies based on analysis of
job tasks in the UK and US labour markets show that
two attributes in particular are the least likely to be
replaced by machines: originality and social intelligence.
The former – and most important – attribute refers to
creative problem-solving and the generation of unusual
or clever ideas about a given topic or situation. The latter
entails tacit knowledge of social and cultural contexts
enabling one to perform tasks such as negotiation,
coordination, teaching and mentoring (Citi GPS, 2016;
Frey and Osborne, 2013). Acquiring a wide range of
transferable and foundation skills is therefore extremely
important for future employment. The challenge for
education systems is to discover how to most effectively
impart them to students.
Countries need to make the leap to the high skill
service sector
The decline of medium skill work, particularly
manufacturing employment, has strong implications
for lower income economies. In almost every country
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CHAPTER 2 | PROSPERITY: SUSTAINABLE AND INCLUSIVE ECONOMIES